KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote that it contracted Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH) to verify reports regarding the meeting of the Subcommittee on the Adjustment of the Basic Capitation Rate under the Social Security Office (SSO). The meeting, originally scheduled for 24 October, was rescheduled and held on 19 October 2026.
Initial indications suggest that there will be an increase in the basic capitation rate by 3-4%. This proposal will subsequently be presented to the main committee for approval.
According to the analyst, should the proposed rate increase be approved, it would have a positive impact on BCH’s future performance, with the adjustment likely to be effective from 1 January 2027. However, the expected 3-4% increase is lower than the previously anticipated 10%.
KGI estimates that a 10% increase in the SSO capitation rate would boost its current 2027 net profit forecast by approximately 10.2%. Consequently, a 3-4% adjustment would translate to a 3-4% increase in the company’s projected 2027 net profit, currently estimated at THB 1.41 billion (+6% YoY). BCH has a strong base of SSO patients, accounting for about 37.5% of its revenue in the first half of 2026.
KGI continues to recommend BCH as a top pick in the hospital sector due to its high profit sensitivity to the recovery of international patients and potential benefits from SSO adjustments. The analyst reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, with a 2027 DCF-based target price of THB 12.50 (WACC 8.5%, terminal growth 1%), which does not yet include the potential impact of the capitation increase.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) noted that there has been no official disclosure of the results from the fourth meeting of the SSO subcommittee held on 19 October 2026. The subcommittee’s term is set to end on 24 October 2026.
Following this, the resolution will be reviewed by the SSO Medical Committee and then forwarded to the SSO board for final approval and implementation. Approval may come from the acting board or from the new SSO board, and will be certified by the Ministry of Labour by late November.
Kasikorn maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for BCH (target price THB 12.50) and RJH (THB 17.70), and a ‘Hold’ for CHG (THB 1.69), based on the assumption of a 5% capitation increase. If no capitation rate adjustment occurs, the brokerage estimates a downside of approximately 4-5% to the current DCF-based valuations, lowering BCH’s target price to THB 11.90, RJH to THB 16.90, and CHG to THB 1.62.
