Asia Plus Securities projects strong year-on-year earnings growth for Thai listed companies in the third quarter of 2026, with aggregate profits expected to reach approximately THB 278 billion, an increase of 25.6% compared to the same period last year, but a 15.4% decline from the previous quarter. This forecast is based on data from 129 companies, representing about 81% of the market’s capitalization.
Among sectors, energy is expected to record the highest earnings at approximately THB 91 billion, up 69% year-on-year, followed by the banking sector at about THB 67 billion. Sectors such as tourism, electronics, healthcare, construction, agriculture, and finance are also anticipated to post solid growth, while listed companies overall are likely to benefit from continued earnings momentum into the fourth quarter, despite seasonal slowing.
In the short term, the Thai stock market faces uncertainties from slowing foreign capital inflows and anticipation surrounding the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on October 28, 2026. Although foreign investors have been net buyers for five consecutive trading days, the daily net buy volume has recently decelerated. Meanwhile, a net short position in the futures market suggests a cautious approach ahead of key events.
Consensus from a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists indicates the MPC will likely hold its policy rate at 1.00%, focusing ahead on economic and inflation trends amid rising energy and food prices, alongside tepid domestic purchasing power. Policy measures such as support for solar roof installations and reduced excise taxes on E20 and B20 fuels remain areas to monitor.
Internationally, technology and semiconductor stocks have shown a recovery, encouraged by global investment in artificial intelligence, which has also helped support Asian equities. However, investors are awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates—anticipated to remain on hold at 3.75% to 4.00%—and new economic data, developments that could affect global financial markets.
Asia Plus emphasizes stocks with strong fundamentals and earnings momentum. GULF, BBL, and ITC are highlighted for their positive outlooks: GULF for its anticipated profit rebound in the fourth quarter, BBL for its stable earnings and attractive valuation, and ITC for its projected continuous profit growth and expansion opportunities.
As a result, the brokerage recommends investors focus on fundamentally sound stocks with high earnings potential amidst ongoing market volatility.
