According to InnovestX Securities, livestock prices in Thailand have begun to recover since late October, following the resolution of flooding issues and the end of the vegetarian festival. The brokerage expects prices to continue rising, driven by tight supply and improved seasonal demand during the New Year period. This should more than offset the minor increase in animal feed costs.
Betagro Public Company Limited (SET: BTG) remains the sector’s standout, with the strongest profit momentum among livestock companies. For 3Q26, normalized profit is projected at THB 1.2 billion, stable year-on-year but up 66% quarter-on-quarter. This performance is supported by the recovery in livestock prices, the resumption of normal chicken farm operations following a disease outbreak in 2Q26, and resilient export activity.
InnovestX stated that the average domestic pork price in 3Q26 reached THB 69/kg (+8% QoQ, +1% YoY), surpassing the THB 60/kg breakeven for major producers. Chicken averaged THB 44/kg (+14% QoQ, +11% YoY), above the THB 39/kg breakeven. While earlier events had pushed prices to their quarterly lows in mid-October, they swiftly recovered by the month’s end. Looking ahead, ongoing supply constraints, seasonal demand, and robust chicken exports to the EU, UK, and Japan should further support pricing.
On the cost side, corn feed prices in 3Q26 dropped to THB 10.8/kg (-9% QoQ, +5% YoY) due to seasonal yields, but imported soybean meal rose to THB 18.5/kg (+6% QoQ, +20% YoY), attributed to higher global oil prices and a weaker baht. Meanwhile, the increase in livestock prices is forecasted to outpace feed cost pressures, further aided by lower corn prices and BTG’s hedged soybean meal costs through mid-2027.
For 4Q26, profits should stay in line with those of 3Q26 and exceed those of export-dependent peers facing potential QoQ profit declines. Normalized profit should still grow YoY on the back of strong livestock prices, healthy chicken export levels, and well-managed feed costs.
For long-term growth, BTG is further supported by its strategic expansion into the B2B e-commerce sector. On October 19, the company announced the acquisition of an additional 59% equity stake in Polar Bear Mission (operator of the Freshket platform), increasing its stake to 68% upon deal completion in November.
While financial details were not disclosed, the investment is estimated at below THB 500 million, posing limited impact on BTG’s financial position. The move enables entry into B2B e-commerce via an established platform without significant short-term capital commitments and offers opportunities to expand BTG’s HoReCa client base and generate synergies through cross-selling and logistics.
In 2025, Polar reported revenue of THB 2.3 billion and over 10% annual growth for the past two years, while losses narrowed to THB 183 million. Full consolidation in 2027 could lift BTG’s revenue by about 2% with only a 2% earnings drag, excluding potential additional profits from future synergies or restructuring.
As a result, InnovestX maintains an ‘Outperform’ recommendation on BTG, with a mid-2027 SOTP-based target price of THB 25.00 per share, applying a 9-11x PE for its feed, farm, and food businesses.
Notably, key risks include weaker-than-expected demand or prices due to economic fragility and increased supply, as well as higher feed costs. Significant ESG risks involve greenhouse gas emissions, water and waste management, product quality, customer welfare, and health and safety policies.
