Three and a half months of ambiguity in Thai politics has undeniably led the Thai SET Index to fluctuate down considerably. The Move Forward Party which received the majority of votes on May 14 general election raised concerns among investors that huge structural changes will be made to Thailand’s socioeconomic policies.
At the present, analysts believe that the market had moved on from uncertainties knowing that King Maha Vajiralongkorn approved Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s new cabinet on August 2 and granted a royal pardon to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on August 1.
The development led to the belief that Thailand must overcome past ideological conflicts so that Mr. Thavisin’s government may govern with ease and the country can finally achieve common well-being and prosperity.
Some analysts say that the latest outcome had actually made it difficult to foresee how investors may react through the stock market. What is obvious, however, is the trading volume had risen compared to the period of political vacuum.
Mrs. Chavinda Hanratanakool President of Association of Investment Management Companies – AIMC said, it’s hard to say whether the people’s feeling towards the royal pardon is positive or negative. The stock market’s direction for the rest of 2023 really depends on the government’s stimulus measures. If there are clear governmental investment policies, then that would positively impact the market one way or the other.
From Executive Vice President of Research, Asia Plus Securities Mr. Terdsak Taweethiratham point of view, he sees concerns of backlash from royal pardon, but he believes that his majesty the king’s decision ought to be final. Hence, the royal pardon wouldn’t affect the capital market as much. What to look forward to is rather economic policies announcement on August 8 and the first cabinet meeting by mid-August. But overall, with Pheu Thai’s proposed economic policies, such as, energy prices reduction, 10,000-baht digital wallet and the abandoning fees for tourist visas, as well as how trading volume has significantly increased to an average of 40 billion baht per day, are signs for the market to continue and rally. However, what to watch out for is in the revised down of the country’s GDP after the Q2/23 EPS came below expectations.
According to Head of Thailand Equity Strategy of Krungsri Capital Security Mr. Korraphat Worrachet, this week, the set index will move in the ‘sideway-up’ direction with primary contributions from the tourism, retail as well as stocks benefiting from the Chinese economy. He recommends AOT which benefits from the free visa policy. IVL, a stock related to investment and may profit from the recovering of Chinese economy. Finally, BE8, a stock that can gain from the 10,000-baht digital wallet measure.