As the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia enters the second day, several analysts estimated that the tourism sector of both countries would suffer, citing various reasons. However, they seem likely to agree that Cambodia would feel the impact at a much higher magnitude than Thailand.
In 2024, the tourism sector contributed about 12% and 9% of Thailand and Cambodia’s GDPs respectively, with Thailand welcoming about 35 million tourists, while Cambodia only recorded 6.7 million. This conflict may prevent both nations from achieving those numbers this year.
Sreeparna Banerjee, a researcher from Observer Research Foundation, stated that this military crash would damage Thailand’s recovery effort in its tourism. However, Cambodia would face a greater blow as the nation did not have many measures to soften the damage.
Joshua Kurlantzick, an expert from Council on Foreign Relations, pointed out that Thailand’s economy would face “minimal impact” as the country’s tourist destinations are miles away from the conflict zone, such as Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Phuket.
Cambodia, however, did not have that many points of interest. Furthermore, this conflict would worsen its international reputation, damaging what has already been deemed an unstable and dangerous place than Thailand.
Kasem Prunratanamala, a researcher from CGS International Securities (Thailand), stated that the conflict has caused all border points to close, preventing Thai people from gambling in Cambodia. Meanwhile, Thailand did not have many tourist destinations in those areas.
Chansambath Bong, expert from Australian National University, noted that use of powerful vehicles and weapons, such as Thailand’s F-16s and Cambodia’s BM-21s, and the call from the extreme nationalism from both sides would intensify the conflict and prevent de-escalation. Still, he added the damage scale from this conflict may eventually motivate both sides to stand down.
Banerjee, however, pointed out the silver lining. She stated that this military clash may be a prolonged one but it is unlikely to become large-scale conflict. The strong economic and political incentives from both nations will be the deterrent. Nonetheless, she noted that the situation in the region, such as the Myanmar crisis, may block the arrival of a quick resolution.
