Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, appear poised to secure a commanding victory in the latest lower house elections, according to projections from NHK exit polls.
The parties’ likely gains would ensure a comfortable majority and could potentially reach the threshold needed for constitutional reform with Sanae Takaichi at the helm.
According to NHK’s exit polls, the LDP is expected to win between 274 and 328 seats in the 465-seat chamber, surpassing the 233-seat mark required to control the lower house. By Sunday evening, preliminary results had already confirmed that the party had moved past the majority threshold.
The Japan Innovation Party, which shares a coalition with the LDP, is projected to collect 28 to 38 seats. This would bring the combined total for the ruling bloc to between 302 and 366 seats. Should the coalition exceed 310 seats, it would achieve a two-thirds majority for the first time since 2017, a milestone not reached under LDP leader Takaichi’s predecessor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Opposition forces, led by the Centrist Reform Alliance—a group established in January following the merger of members from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito—are projected to lose a substantial number of seats, according to NHK’s exit poll data.
