The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) stated that the 1Q24 Thailand Tourism Confidence Index (TTCI) was at level 81, an increase from level 77 in 4Q23, reaching the highest level in the past four years, though it remained below the normal level of 100. In the first quarter of 2024, there were 9.37 million foreign tourists, an increase of 44% from the previous year.
Moreover, for the whole year, it was expected that there would be approximately 34-36 million tourists, generating revenue of 2.5 trillion baht, with the possibility of increasing to 3-3.5 trillion baht. Domestic tourism by Thai nationals was expected to exceed 50 million people, generating a total revenue of around 650 billion baht.
The index forecasted the tourism situation for the second quarter of 2024 to be at level 83, reflecting confidence in tourism during the Songkran Festival period.
The positive outlook from the index will benefit tourism stocks as signs of tourism recovery in the country emerge.
Krungsri Capital Securities (KCS) anticipated that on May 14, Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT) would report a net profit for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2023/2024 (January-March 2024) of 6,145 million baht, an increase of 230% YoY and 35% QoQ, with net profit continuing to consistently grow YoY from a low base and seasonally increasing QoQ throughout the season. Total revenue was expected to reach 17,875 million baht, an increase of 62% YoY and 14% QoQ, following the recovery of passenger numbers and flights post-COVID-19.
While most costs and expenses remained stable, the net profit margin was forecast to improve to 34.4% (compared to 16.9% in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2022/2023 and 29% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023/2024).
Kasikorn Securities (KS) gave a base price for Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) at 21.70 baht and expected a 45% YoY increase in normal profit for the year 2024 to reach 2.4 billion baht. The outlook was supported by the surge in traffic at Samui Airport to a double-digit, surpassing pre-COVID levels. The adoption of adjusted flight routes resulted in higher average ticket prices, while the cost of jet fuel has only increased by 6% YTD to 100-102 US dollars per barrel, which is lower than the 17% YTD increase in Brent crude oil prices.
In addition, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin had visited Samui Airport to prepare for the runway expansion and expected the process to be completed by early next year. The runway expansion would be able to accommodate larger aircraft, such as the Airbus 320 and Boeing 737, as well as increase the airport capacity for more tourists. This aligned with BA’s plan to increase the number of flights to Samui from 50 to 70 flights per day.
Meanwhile, Bangkok Airways would also benefit from the establishment of an entertainment complex in Rayong province, potentially leading to a rerating of the stock price on a higher P/E multiple above the current level of 15x, as the company held a 40% stake in the U-Tapao International Airport and Eastern Airport City project.
