Krungsri Securities (KSS) is standing by its ‘BUY’ rating on Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI), with a 2025 target price of 2.00 baht per share, despite the developer’s latest presale figures coming in below expectations.
In the second quarter, Sansiri recorded presales of 7.7 billion baht, a significant drop of 27% year-on-year and 42% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of company targets. Both low-rise and condominium segments contributed to the decline, with new project launches and take-up rates under pressure from weakening purchasing power.
The low-rise segment posted presales of 5.2 billion baht, down 20% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, with new launches totaling 4.6 billion baht. Sales from newly launched projects represented just 13% of the total, with the bulk of presales stemming from existing inventory.
Condominium presales were particularly weak at 2.5 billion baht, a drop of 39% from last year and 69% from the previous quarter. No new condominium projects were launched in Q2, leaving sales to rely entirely on existing stock.
Sansiri launched three new low-rise projects in Q2—Narasiri Bangna Km.10, Demi Rama 9 – Mengjai, and Else Bearing 32—worth a combined 4.6 billion baht. Take-up rates varied: Narasiri Bangna Km.10 achieved only 4%, Demi Rama 9 – Mengjai sold out completely, and Else Bearing 32 saw a 50% take-up. The company delayed launching a planned new condominium project, citing subdued purchasing power.
Despite the soft quarter, 1H25 presales reached 21.1 billion baht, up 4% year-on-year and making up 46% of Sansiri’s 2025 target. However, KSS flagged potential downside risk if launching schedules for the second half are pushed back.
Net profit for Q2 is projected in the range of 900–950 million baht, a year-on-year decrease but a quarter-on-quarter improvement, supported by substantial transfers from existing backlogs. Gross profit margin, however, remains under pressure from aggressive discounts amid fierce competition.
The analyst retains its 2025 normalized profit forecast at 4.55 billion baht, representing a 13% decline year-on-year, with estimates skewing more conservatively than the company’s guidance, suggesting limited further downside if Sansiri revises its project launches.
Looking forward, KSS anticipates stronger performance from SIRI in the second half of the year, driven by a raft of project launches, a substantial backlog of units ready for transfer, and the potential for gains from landbank sales into joint ventures.
Following these, the brokerage firm continues to include Sansiri among its top picks, betting on an upturn in 2H25 as the company pursues an aggressive expansion strategy expected to grow market share over the long term.
