Krungsri Securities has issued a constructive outlook on the Thai stock market, citing recent progress in trade negotiations between Thailand’s Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). The positive signals coming from these discussions suggest Thailand could secure an effective tariff rate, a measure of the total effect of the entire tariff structure on the value added when both intermediate and final goods are imported, at around 20% on its exports to the United States—a development that may bolster the nation’s competitiveness relative to other ASEAN countries and stimulate key segments of the local equity market, particularly reopening plays.
Based on a post from Thailand’s Minister of Finance, the USTR has responded favorably to Thailand’s proposals, with meaningful suggestions for improvement on the table. This constructive climate enhances confidence that Thailand may earn a tariff rate on par with leading ASEAN peers, a scenario that had previously seemed out of reach.
The brokerage outlines four scenarios based on the potential outcomes of the negotiations, which it gauges via the effective tariff rate—the weighted average import tariff determined by U.S. import volumes for each country, reflecting relative pricing from the U.S. consumer’s perspective:
1) Reciprocal Tariff Deal at 15–18%
Should Thailand secure this level of tariff, its effective rate would stand at around 17-18%, notably below Indonesia (26%) and Vietnam (18.4%). In this bullish case, Krungsri expects a positive reaction in the SET Index, with a projected gain of around 5% to trade between 1,260–1,300 points.
Preferred sectors and stocks: Industrial estates such as WHA and AMATA (benefitting from increased FDI, particularly from the “China Plus One” trend), export-oriented tech firms like DELTA, KCE, and HANA, as well as exporters including TU, ITC, AAI, and STA. Should Thailand agree to drop tariffs on U.S. imports, beneficiaries might include COM7, ADVICE, SYNEX, BE8, BBIK, GULF, GPSC, PTTGC, and CPF. An additional boost could come from infrastructure and data center expansion, with GULF and ADVANC as key players.
2) Reciprocal Tariff Deal at 19–22%
In this scenario, the effective rate would be about 19%, slightly under Indonesia’s but matching Vietnam’s rate. Krungsri forecasts a moderate advance in the SET Index, targeting a 2–3% increase within the 1,230–1,260 point range.
Key investment ideas: Focus on deep-value reopening stories, such as export-related KCE and HANA, as well as industrial estates WHA and AMATA. Should tariffs on U.S. imports be lifted, ADVANC, COM7, ADVICE, and INSET are expected to benefit, alongside gas importers such as PTTGC, GULF, GPSC, and BGRIM.
3) Reciprocal Tariff Deal at 22–25%
Here, the effective tariff would be 21%, better than Indonesia but still competitive against Vietnam. The view is neutral: the SET Index may consolidate, hovering between 1,200–1,230 points while awaiting new catalysts.
Strategic focus: Domestic defensive plays like BDMS and CPALL, utilities such as GULF and GPSC, reopening and tourism stocks like MINT and CENTEL, as well as consumer finance names including KTC and MTC.
4) No Deal—Tariff Remains at 36%
Failure to reach an agreement would see rates stay at 25%, barely ahead of Indonesia but significantly behind Vietnam. This negative outcome could put downward pressure on the SET, which may retreat to 1,120–1,150 points.
Suggested positioning: Defensive and interest-rate sensitive stocks such as KTC, MTC, ADVANC, and AP, as well as highly-leveraged names like TRUE, MINT, and CPALL. Other safe havens include utilities (GULF, BCPG), healthcare (BDMS, BCH, CHG), and tourism (CENTEL, ERW).
Krungsri currently views scenario two—attaining a tariff rate similar to ASEAN peers—as increasingly likely. Consequently, the brokerage expects the SET Index will begin to react favorably and trade within the 1,230–1,260 range, led by select “Reopening Trade” opportunities.
Top stock picks remain KCE and HANA in exports, industrial estates WHA and AMATA, as well as prospective beneficiaries from any reciprocal tariff removals, including ADVANC, COM7, ADVICE, INSET, and gas-related players such as PTTGC, GULF, GPSC, and BGRIM.
As trade winds shift, Krungsri sees Thailand’s negotiating success as a potential catalyst for a medium-term turnaround in the Thai equity market, especially across sectors best positioned to leverage improved access to U.S. markets.
