The global copper market was thrown into turmoil after U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports but opted to exempt refined metal—pivotal to international supplies—from the new duties.
The unexpected carve-out sparked the steepest drop ever for U.S. copper futures, erasing a lucrative trading opportunity that had seen metal rushed into American ports ahead of the deadline.
U.S. copper contracts on the Comex exchange fell more than 20%, with traders caught off guard by the White House’s last-minute revision. The price gap between U.S. copper and the London Metal Exchange (LME) collapsed to around 1% from more than 30% just a week earlier. Analysts say the about-face scuttled bets that U.S. prices would remain elevated and could see global copper trade patterns revert to normal.
Market expectations have been completely upended, said Li Xuezhi, head of research at Shanghai-based Chaos Ternary Futures, adding that those positioning for higher U.S. prices have been left empty-handed.
The policy change is expected to reverberate through the world economy, given copper’s critical role in electrical wiring and infrastructure. Earlier this year, anticipation of harsh tariffs sparked a rush among global traders to ship copper into the U.S.—an episode some industry veterans describe as unprecedented in scale.
The White House said the new duties will cover semi-finished copper goods such as pipes, rods, and electrical components, but not less-processed forms like ore or cathodes.
While Wednesday’s move excludes refined copper from immediate tariffs, the threat is not entirely off the table. The White House revealed that a phase-in of duties on refined metal could start in 2027, escalating in later years, depending on the Department of Commerce’s evaluation of domestic supply.
As of Thursday afternoon in Shanghai, copper traded at $9,682 a ton on the LME, while futures in New York were down sharply to $4.438 a pound, underscoring the market’s volatility amid the shifting policy landscape.
