As Thailand is set to face a U.S. tariff rate of 19%, considerably lower than the earlier projected rate of 36%, prompting closer investor scrutiny regarding the actual impact on the earnings of food and electronics exporters, as well as their competitiveness.
According to Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS), the tariff rate places Thailand’s exporters on nearly equal footing with major rivals, including Vietnam, which faces a 20% tariff, and China, whose rates are also higher. This development should help mitigate concerns around a potential erosion of competitiveness, although the true financial impact is expected to become clearer over the coming quarters.
Food Sector: ITC, TU, STA, and SAPPE Closely Watched
The main food producers with substantial U.S. exposure include i-Tail Corporation (ITC), which derives 50% of its total revenue from the U.S. market, Thai Union Group (TU) at 18%, Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA) at 13%, and Sappe (SAPPE) at 5%.
Calculations by FSS suggest that if companies and their U.S. clients share the tariff burden evenly (9-10% each), company earnings could see a reduction of 2-15%, with TU and ITC feeling the greatest hit of around 13-15%.
On the other hand, should companies have to absorb the full 19% tariff, profits could shrink by 5-30%. However, the analyst believes the actual impact may be less severe given an expectation that cost-sharing will prevail with U.S. partners.
Electronics: DELTA, KCE, HANA Brace for Profit Headwinds
In the electronics sector, Delta Electronics (Thailand) (DELTA) derives 30-35% of its revenue from America and is currently most exposed. FSS notes that if DELTA bears 10-20% of the tariff, its 2026 profit could fall by 11-21%. However, the company states that current agreements have its U.S. clients shouldering a 15% tariff rate; only a remaining 4% is subject to further negotiation.
KCE Electronics (KCE), with 21% of sales to the U.S., could face a 16-33% decline in profit in 2026 if forced to absorb the full tariff. Yet, since Taiwanese competitors are slated to pay a 20% tariff, KCE could enjoy a relative advantage in the U.S. market.
HANA Microelectronics (HANA) may be the most vulnerable, with 26% of revenue coming from the U.S., relatively thin margins, and less differentiated products compared to DELTA or KCE.
Outlook: Negotiation and Competition Key to Impact
Food and electronics exporters are the most exposed, with U.S. markets accounting for an average 15-50% of revenue among major firms. While earnings are likely to come under pressure, parity with regional competitors may contain the longer-term setback, leaving the actual impact dependent on individual negotiations with U.S. buyers in the months ahead.
