Thailand’s equity market is expected to rally on the back of a new trade agreement with the United States, setting the reciprocal tariff rate at 19%. The deal aligns Thailand with peers like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, while Vietnam is subject to 20% rates.
Analysts from Krungsri Securities (KSS) expect the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET Index) to respond positively, forecasting a trading range between 1,230-1,260 points on Friday’s session, and projecting a monthly range of 1,295-1,330 points.
The brokerage firm recommends a focus on ‘deep value’ reopening trades, particularly within the export sector (KCE and HANA), industrial estate (WHA, AMATA), and companies set to benefit from lower import costs on U.S. goods, including ADVANC, COM7, ADVICE, and INSET. Energy importers such as PTTGC, GPSC, and BGRIM are among potential beneficiaries.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) echoed this optimism, noting that Thailand’s tariff rate aligns closely with the region—Vietnam and Taiwan at 20%, while Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia all at 19%.
The analyst now estimates an upside risk to its Thai GDP growth forecast, raising projections from 1.4% to 1.6%, citing improved export performance and robust front-loaded activity in the first half of the year.
With export estimates currently at 1.5%—still below the Bank of Thailand’s 4% forecast—Kasikorn expects strengthened exports to meaningfully reduce the risk of a technical recession.
Despite a notable 9% rally in the SET Index over the past two weeks, fuelled by speculation regarding favorable tariff negotiations, Kasikorn forecasts a period of consolidation ahead, revising its view from “sideways up” to “sideways,” projecting a trading band of 1,200-1,275 points.
Investors are advised to adopt a selective approach, with particular attention to industrial estate names like AMATA, value plays such as CPN and ADVANC, and exporters in rubber and food segments (CPF, BTG, GFPT).
Meanwhile, the brokerage firm also highlights companies expected to gain from targeted U.S. import tariff reductions—entries such as KLINIQ and hospital operators (BH, BDMS, PR9) in light of Thailand’s significant U.S. pharmaceutical imports, as well as switches in the banking sector from TISCO, BBL to value opportunities KKP, TTB. PTTGC is also recommended citing an attractive valuation.
