Thailand’s customs trade surplus narrowed in July, according to recent data reported by Thai customs. Following the announcement, JPMorgan wrote in its analysis that both exports and imports contracted during the month, though the country’s broader financial standing—measured by the Balance of Payments (BOP)—remains supported, largely due to significant gold-related inflows.
Trade Balance Overview
The customs trade surplus stood at US$0.3 billion in July, down from US$1.1 billion in June, though slightly better than market expectations. The decline was mainly due to a sharper contraction in exports (-3.9% MoM, seasonally adjusted) compared with imports (-3.8% MoM, SA).
However, when adjusted for shipping costs, the BOP trade balance remained in surplus at US$2.4 billion in July.
Exports: Treading Water Ahead of Tariffs
JPMorgan described Thai exports as “treading water.” On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, exports slipped 0.2% MoM, led by a decline in agricultural goods. Offsetting this were gains in manufactured goods (notably technology-related shipments and automobiles, though machinery pulled back) and raw materials.
By destination, exports to the US held steady at elevated levels, while shipments to China continued to ease after earlier strong growth in the second quarter.
Looking ahead, exports are expected to weaken in H2 2025 due to:
- The “payback” effect from earlier frontloading ahead of tariffs
- Softer US demand
- The impact of new reciprocal tariffs coming fully into effect
Imports: Intermediate Goods Drive Growth
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, imports rose 2.4% MoM, led by:
- Non-fuel intermediate goods (used in production)
- Capital goods (machinery and equipment)
- Consumer goods
By contrast, fuel imports declined despite rising crude oil prices. Within manufactured goods, imports of tech-related processing items rose, hinting at another month of early shipments to the US before tariff rules take effect.
Analysts are also watching whether the surge in capital goods imports will persist, as it has yet to translate into higher fixed asset investment, particularly in Q2 2025.
Gold and Tourism Bolster Financial Stability
Despite trade fluctuations, Thailand’s overall financial outlook remains resilient. JPMorgan maintained its forecast for the 2025 current account (CA) surplus at 2.9% of GDP, expecting stronger momentum in Q4 on the back of the high tourist season.
Meanwhile, gold-related inflows—classified under “errors & omissions (E&O)”—remain a major support for the BOP. These inflows are also enabling the Bank of Thailand to continue building up its foreign reserves.
