The United Nations (UN) anticipates global gross domestic product to expand by 2.7% in 2026, a slight moderation from 2025’s 2.8% projection, as lingering effects of U.S. tariffs, persistent economic uncertainties, and geopolitical frictions weigh on growth.
According to the U.N.’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report, global growth is seen inching up to 2.9% in 2027, though this remains significantly below the 3.2% average recorded between 2010 and 2019, before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted that “a combination of economic, geopolitical, and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape,” resulting in new uncertainty and heightened social vulnerability.
Despite higher U.S. tariffs last year, the U.N. economists stated, the world economy displayed “unexpected resilience,” with continued robust consumer spending and receding inflation helping to support activity. However, they cautioned that structural weaknesses still linger.
The report indicates that growth trajectories in Europe, Japan, and the United States are likely to remain broadly stable in the upcoming years. Economic expansion in the United States is projected to pick up slightly to 2% in 2026 from 1.9% in 2025, with an incremental increase to 2.2% by 2027.
The U.N. cited factors such as solid consumer outlays and investment in artificial intelligence as supportive elements, though these were partially offset by subdued residential and commercial construction.
Japan’s output is forecast to increase by 0.9% this year, before edging up to 1% in 2027 — both below the estimated 1.2% rise for 2025. The U.N. described private consumption as being on a gradual recovery track, while export growth, especially automobiles, is predicted to remain under pressure due to higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing policy unpredictability.
For the European Union, economic growth is expected to ease from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026, attributed to the dampening influence of U.S. tariff hikes and continuing geopolitical uncertainties on exports. Nevertheless, growth is predicted to accelerate to 1.6% in 2027.
Within East Asia, the U.N. sees growth moderating to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.9% last year. China, the region’s economic powerhouse, is expected to post growth of 4.6% in 2026, marginally dropping to 4.5% in 2027, trailing the estimated 4.9% pace forecast for 2025.
The report references a “temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States — including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce” as having buoyed market confidence.
Looking to Thailand, the U.N. forecasts see real GDP rising by 2.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.0% in 2026, before rebounding to 2.6% in 2027. The report attributes subdued consumption in 2025 to elevated household debt, while a challenging outlook for services exports is linked to weaker tourist demand from major markets such as China, as well as intensified competition from other regional destinations.
