Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) has released an analysis on Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI), upgrading its recommendation to “Buy” with a target price of THB 14 per share. This valuation is based on a 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13x, reflecting a clearly improving outlook for the company’s performance in the second half of 2025.
ICHI’s management has set a revenue target of THB 9.5 billion for 2025, representing a 10% year-on-year growth. Although revenue in the first half of the year fell 10% compared to the same period last year, the company expects revenue growth to accelerate by 20% year-on-year in the latter half of 2025.
The company is targeting a gross profit margin of 24% for 2025, down slightly from 25.7% in 2024, mainly due to an increased proportion of revenue from original equipment manufacturing (OEM) contracts. However, decreasing costs of raw materials and packaging will help support a stronger gross margin, compared with the 16% achieved in the first half of 2025.
The brokerage firm expects ICHI’s normalized profit in 3Q25 to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by record-high sales through convenience store channels. In Q4, the company plans to intensify its aggressive marketing strategy through local retail channels.
Net profit in Q3 is forecast at THB 360 million, up 12% quarter-on-quarter and 1% year-on-year. Full-year 2025 profit is expected at THB 1.3 billion, down 3.3% from last year, before rebounding by 7.2% in 2026.
Notably, the green tea market expanded by 2.1% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the first growth in four months and signaling a recovery in the ready-to-drink tea segment following consecutive declines in previous months. Ichitan management sees further signs of order recovery, even though Q3 is typically a low season. The outlook for the second half of the year is expected to be significantly better than the first half.
In addition, Ichitan offers an attractive dividend yield, estimated at around 4.7% per year. Recently, the company paid an interim dividend from its 1H25 performance at THB 0.55 per share, with the XD (ex-dividend) date set for August 27, 2025.
