Mr. Vitai Ratanakorn, Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT), revealed today (March 4, 2026) that the BOT is closely monitoring the war situation in the Middle East as the situation remains fluid and the potential impacts on Thailand need to be constantly assessed.
Thailand relies on oil imports, which could slightly affect GDP. Preliminary estimates suggest that GDP will decrease by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points, while the greater impact will be on inflation, as energy prices represent 13% in the calculation of the inflation index. At present, inflation remains low and is expected to be at 0.2-0.3% throughout the year.
Regarding measures to address this situation, it is fortunate that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) already decided to pre-emptively cut the policy interest rate at the meeting on February 25, 2026, which was a preparation for anticipated risks from the past year’s 12-day conflict. However, if the war escalates and prolongs, the BOT is ready to adjust its measures to accommodate emerging risks, or, if necessary, a special MPC meeting can be convened.
The BOT is prepared to introduce measures should the situation escalate, while commercial banks believe they have customer assistance measures in place. As for the possibility of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel, it depends on how quickly the situation is resolved. However, in terms of Thailand’s macroeconomic stability, the country remains robust, with strong buffers against risks from volatility and capital movement, due to high international reserves compared to foreign debt. Meanwhile, current oil reserves could last about 60 days and alternative sources can still be sought if needed.
