CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) released an analysis citing data from Chemical Market Analytics (CMA), stating that the U.S. PET (polyethylene terephthalate) market is dominated by the beverage packaging segment, accounting for 71% of total demand in the first half of 2025, followed by food packaging at 7%.
The annual PET demand stands at approximately 4 million tons, while domestic production capacity is only 2.6–2.7 million tons per year, meaning more than one-third of PET demand is dependent on imports.
CMA forecasts that the U.S. will increase PET imports by 7.5% year-on-year in 2025, with Asia as the main exporting region—representing 70% of total imports—followed by Mexico at 16% and Canada at 5%. However, on September 5, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order revoking the reciprocal tariff exemption for PET and recycled PET, effective from September 8, 2025.
CGSI analysts indicated that countries facing high tariffs will lose competitiveness, with India subject to a 50% tariff, Indonesia 19%, Thailand 19%, and Vietnam 20%, which are expected to be the most affected.
Mexico and Vietnam, though, still hold some advantage under the current tariff structure. However, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) initiated a public consultation process on September 17, 2025, ahead of the USMCA trade agreement review on July 1, 2026, adding uncertainty to the PET market outlook.
Regarding production, the analyst team anticipates that U.S. producers’ average utilization rates will rise to 75% in 2025 and 81% in 2026 due to competitive advantage, even though there are no new capacity expansion plans after the cancellation of the Corpus Christi project in Texas (1.1 million tons/year) and the closure of the Cedar Creek plant (170,000 tons/year).
For PET producers in Asia, conditions are set to become more challenging as reduced exports to the U.S. may lead to higher inventory levels. Despite limited capacity increases, PET spreads in Asia year-to-date remain low, at just $66 per ton.
Although PET may exit the downcycle sooner than other polymers, CGSI recommends underweighting Thai petrochemical stocks, as the PE (polyethylene) and PP (polypropylene) cycles are expected to remain weak until after 2028, mainly pressured by lower-than-expected plastic demand. Potential upside risks may arise only if raw material costs decline.
