CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) disclosed in its latest analysis that demand driven by the China+1 production relocation strategy remains robust, as Chinese and multinational companies continue to select ASEAN nations as primary destinations.
The United States currently imposes tariffs on goods from Vietnam and Thailand that are 27-28 percentage points lower than those on Chinese imports, making both Southeast Asia nations increasingly attractive for manufacturing relocation.
Additionally, the value of investment promotion applications in Thailand (excluding data center projects) surged 23.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, reaching THB 761.8 billion, while greater clarity regarding U.S. tariffs on Chinese products and rules on transshipments could further accelerate Chinese investor relocation in 2026-2027.
As a result, CGSI has revised land sales forecasts upward for key industrial estate operators by 3.4-13.6% over 2026-2027. Projected land sales for WHA Corporation (WHA) in 2026 now stand at 2,000 rai, for Amata Corporation (AMATA) at 1,172 rai, and for Pinthong Industrial Park (PIN) at 570 rai.
CGSI assessed sensitivity to U.S. tariff policy and its impact on WHA’s and AMATA’s land sales. Should tariffs have a moderate effect—resulting in a 10–20% decrease in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and slowing the China+1 relocation strategy—average annual land sales for WHA and AMATA are projected at 3,312 rai in 2026-2028, down from 5,553 rai in 2024 (prior to the tariff hike) but nearly double the 1,732-rai annual average seen during 2013-2022.
In a worst-case scenario, where FDI drops by 40-60%—similar to the 2008-2009 financial crisis—operating profit estimates for 2026-2027 would be cut by 3.7-13.3%. Conversely, if FDI inflows rise by 5-12%, akin to the surge during the China+1 phase in 2022, the profit projections would see upside potential of 3.4-12%.
The analyst highlights that WHA stands to benefit from rising investment in data centers in Thailand, as the company directly supplies water, land, and electricity to data center clients. Land sales for data centers are forecast to make up 50% of WHA’s total land sales in 2026, up from 21.7% in 2024, including two new contracts to supply 57 million cubic meters of water to data center customers. Revenue from water sales to data centers is expected to increase from 0% in 2024 to 26.5% of total utility revenue by 2032.
Given the relatively limited impact of U.S. tariffs on land demand and with Thai industrial estate stocks trading at levels two standard deviations below their five-year average, CGSI upgraded the sector rating from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Overweight’.
The brokerage firm gives a ‘Buy’ rating on AMATA with a target price of THB 23.90 per share, citing strong revenue visibility. WHA is also rated ‘Buy,’ with the target price raised to THB 4.14 (12.1x P/E for 2027), reflecting anticipated benefits from greater data center demand. Additionally, PIN is upgraded from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy,’ with a higher target price of THB 5.48 (4.2x P/E for 2027), underpinned by robust land sales from new projects expected in 2026.
CGSI notes that key downside risks include the potential for the U.S. to raise tariffs on ASEAN nations. On the upside, stronger-than-expected land sales for WHA and AMATA in late 2025 and in 2026 could further support the sector.
