Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (SET: BJC) is setting the stage for its next growth chapter with the recent acquisition of MM Mega Market Vietnam (MMVN), according to management’s discussion with Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) in an analyst conference. BJC is investing in MMVN as part of a long-term strategy to unlock new markets, citing Vietnam’s ongoing economic reforms and expansion opportunities as the key timing drivers for the purchase. Notably, the transaction is expected to be earnings-accretive despite increased financing costs.
Currently, MMVN derives 55% of its revenue from B2B and 45% from B2C, with a target to push B2B sales to 60% by 2030. The company aims to expand from 30 branches in 2025 to 54 by 2030, launching a mix of large and small stores annually. This expansion underpins their goal to more than double net profit after tax (NPAT) from THB 580 million in 2025 to THB 1.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a 16% CAGR.
For 2026, BJC targets high single-digit sales growth, a 50-75 bps improvement in gross profit margin, and a 20-40 bps uptick in EBITDA margin. With a bridging loan interest rate of 2.25%, the acquisition is expected to boost 2026 earnings by 1.6%, but the impact diminishes in 2027 due to higher interest expenses.
FSS highlights four critical factors: (1) VND depreciation, with forecasts suggesting a 7-8% decline by 2026, (2) refinancing risks as BJC plans to shift to bond issuance at a 2.58% interest rate in 2027, (3) execution of large store rollouts, and (4) reliance on margin uplift, as past NPAT growth outpaced sales growth, which averaged just 2% CAGR over 2020-2024 compared to Vietnam’s 6-7% GDP growth.
BJC has also piloted its first hypermarket (MM Supercenter) in late November 2025, planning a rebranding to Big C and three total hypermarket locations by 2030. This may have limited negative sentiment for rival CRC, whose own hypermarket footprint is expected to reach 55-60 Go Malls by 2030.
FSS maintains a “HOLD” rating, expressing more optimism about BJC’s long-term outlook thanks to its Vietnam expansion and new business strategies. However, heightened competition in Thailand and near-term profit contraction in Q4/2025 are likely to cap upside.
Separately, CGS International (Thailand) (CGSI) upgraded BJC to “ADD” with a THB 19.6 target price, pointing to the neutral immediate financial impact but strong medium-term growth potential. BJC’s acquisition of MM Mega Market Vietnam, worth THB 22.5 billion or 30% of its assets, is seen as manageable despite an initial 6.4% share price drop post-announcement. With low-cost financing and a group-level earnings boost of 30-50 bps in 2026-2027, CGSI sees the sell-off as overdone. They highlight BJC’s current 11.3x FY26F P/E valuation as attractive compared to the sector’s 13.6x average.
