On Tuesday at 10:13 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS) rose by 1.01% or THB 0.20 to THB 20.00, with a trading value of THB 139.08 million.
BDMS revealed to ‘Kaohoon’ that the company is holding steady with its target to increase medical service revenues by approximately 3-4% in 2025, according to the company’s Investor Relations team.
Last year, BDMS recorded THB 109.59 billion in medical service revenue, while the first six months of 2025 saw revenues reach THB 55.69 billion, buoyed by an uptick in both domestic and international patients. The company plans a Board of Directors meeting to approve third-quarter results, with the financial statement set to be disclosed on November 12.
InnovestX Securities gives an ‘Outperform’ rating on BDMS, revising its mid-2026 target price to THB 28 per share based on an updated DCF method, down from THB 30 due to lower earnings forecasts. Shares of BDMS have slid 5% over the past three months, underperforming the SET index’s 12% gain, reflecting concerns about a potentially weak third quarter, according to the brokerage.
Currently, BDMS trades at 18 times its expected 2026 earnings, below its historical -2SD average PE and at a 9% discount compared to sector peers like BH and PR9. This reflects low market expectations, but with revenue trends improving since September 2025, the analyst anticipates an earnings rebound in the fourth quarter, which could provide upside for the stock.
For the third quarter of 2025, BDMS is forecast to report a normalized profit of THB 4.1 billion—a 3% decrease from a year earlier but up 18% from the previous quarter. This marks the first year-on-year profit decline per quarter since 2021, attributed to slower revenue growth and a narrowing EBITDA margin.
Third-quarter revenue is projected at THB 27 billion, up 7% from the previous quarter and a marginal 1% year-on-year gain. The analyst noted this slower growth stems from a decline in domestic patient revenue during July and August, after an unusually high base last year caused by a spike in influenza cases. Revenue momentum has reportedly improved since September, and a high single-digit revenue growth is anticipated in September and October as conditions normalize, with flu cases being back on an upward trend.
BDMS performance is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026. Meanwhile, normalized earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been trimmed by 3% each to THB 16.26 billion and THB 17.76 billion, respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook for the recent quarter.
