KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote in its analysis, maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating on Thailand’s tourism sector despite revising down its forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2025.
The revision follows data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, which reported a 7.5% year-on-year decline in international tourist arrivals to 2.91 million in November 2025, bringing the total for the first eleven months to 29.6 million, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period last year.
A sharp 33.8% year-on-year drop in Chinese tourists was a significant factor, with numbers softening after October’s Golden Week. However, major segments such as European and South Asian tourists maintained growth of 12.8% and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively, over the eleven-month period.
The week of November 24-30 saw a slowdown across all market segments, particularly in short-haul travel, which fell over 11% week-on-week. Flooding in ten southern provinces, especially Hat Yai, triggered a 42.6% week-on-week drop in Malaysian arrivals. Comparatively, arrivals from China and India rose by 5.26% and 2.66% week-on-week, while Malaysian, South Korean, and Russian tourists decreased by 42.36%, 3.85%, and 1.64%, respectively.
From January 1 to November 30, Thailand welcomed 29,603,881 international tourists, generating around THB 1.37 trillion in revenue. Malaysia, China, India, Russia, and South Korea were the top five source countries.
Looking ahead, KGI expects a rebound in the coming week due to several factors: the start of the high season for European and American tourists, government easing of travel restrictions, immigration form exemptions, and airlines increasing flights.
Based on the year-to-date figures, KGI has lowered its 2025 forecast by 3.3% to 32.9 million international arrivals, mainly because of slower recovery from China and possible further declines from Malaysia due to flooding. The 2026 forecast is adjusted to 34.2 million—a 3.9% year-on-year increase.
Notably, the brokerage firm views the flooding’s impact as short-term and anticipates recovery following last week’s trough.
Following these, KGI remains optimistic about the high season’s potential to drive tourism-related stocks in the near term, singling out Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL) and The Erawan Group (ERW) as beneficiaries, both rated ‘Outperform’, with target prices of THB 37.50 and THB 3.25, respectively.
