Shares of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (SET: BDMS) are showing momentum for recovery, having bounced up from a “Deep Value” trading zone, according to Krungsri Securities’ strategist. The firm highlights that BDMS’s PER25F (price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 forecast) is now below its historical average by two standard deviations, with strong technical support at the 200-month EMA around THB19.1. Krungsri recommends a ‘Buy’ with a target price of THB28.
Key Highlights:
- Profit Outlook: Net profit for 3Q25F is estimated at THB4.165 billion (-2% y/y, +19% q/q), buoyed by signs of recovery in local patient volumes toward the end of the quarter.
- Revenue Momentum: Early October revenues are up by approximately 10% y/y, driven by rising flu cases—suggesting further upside for 4Q25F.
- International Patient Growth: There are positive signs for international patient flows:
- International tourist numbers saw their first y/y growth in 2025.
- Positive developments in CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam), with Cambodia showing improving government relations.
- The Middle Eastern patient segment remains strong, including recent developments with Kuwaiti patients and increased representation from other regions.
- Demographic Tailwinds: BDMS is well positioned to benefit from Thailand’s aging society, leveraging its extensive hospital network.
Investment Strategy:
Despite BDMS shares declining 18% YTD in 2025 and trading at a PER25F of around 18-19x—significantly under its long-term average—profit growth for 2025 is expected at 5.7%. The combination of technical recovery and positive fundamentals underpins Krungsri’s view that BDMS has further room to run. The recommended trading range for short-term speculation puts support at THB18.8/18.4 and resistance at THB19.9/20.5, with a stop loss at THB18.0.
