PTT Exploration and Production (SET: PTTEP) has become a focal point for analysts, following the release of its third-quarter 2025 results that showed a mix of robust sales volume but declining profit, as softer average selling prices (ASP) and higher unit costs weighed on earnings.
Leading brokers have issued divergent outlooks on the company, underscoring both near-term challenges and potential upside, especially as PTTEP aims for record sales volume in the upcoming quarter.
In the third quarter of 2025, PTTEP reported a net profit of THB 12.7 billion, translating to earnings per share of THB 3.2. This figure reflects a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and a significant 29% year-on-year (YoY) drop. The company’s performance was highlighted by strong sales volumes, yet profits were pressured by a softer ASP environment.
CLSA has maintained its OUTPERFORM rating on PTTEP, with a target price of THB 150. According to CLSA, the third-quarter performance was marked by robust sales volume, but lingering headwinds from lower ASP softened profit. Despite this, CLSA expects that PTTEP is poised to hit a record in sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2025, which should help offset the impact of declining ASPs.
DBS echoes a similarly positive sentiment, maintaining a BUY rating and setting a target price of THB 169 for FY2026. DBS noted that the 3Q25 net profit of THB 12.7 billion, though down 29% YoY and 6% QoQ, was affected by lower ASP and higher unit costs, with the ASP averaging USD 43.17 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe)—an 8% YoY and 2% QoQ decline, mostly due to discounts on liquid volumes compared with Dubai benchmarks. However, DBS anticipates a recovery in the fourth quarter, boosted by higher sales volume and the absence of one-off expenses that weighed on earlier results.
Citi remains constructive on PTTEP, reiterating its BUY rating and a target price of THB 125. According to Citi, the company’s 3Q25 net profit of THB 13 billion was 6% below the previous quarter and 29% down YoY, primarily due to lower ASPs, especially from liquids, which declined by 3% QoQ. The results fell short of both consensus and Citi’s own expectations. However, Citi highlighted several positives for the coming quarters, including a likely ramp-up in sales volume in 4Q25 and declining unit costs, supported by higher volumes, lower depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DDA) from additional reserves, and the absence of one-off general and administrative (G&A) expenses. Citi also noted no expected impairment charges from PTTEP’s Mozambique assets this year.
Conversely, JPMorgan has adopted a more bearish stance, rating PTTEP as UNDERWEIGHT with a markedly lower target price of THB 98. JPMorgan reported that PTTEP’s 3Q25 core net profit landed at THB 12.1 billion, missing both JPMorgan and market consensus due to weaker volumes and increased unit costs. The brokerage pointed to a challenging outlook, noting that even as sales volumes increased marginally to nearly 510,000 barrels per day, the figures remained at the lower end of company guidance. JPMorgan’s negative outlook is rooted in a continued softening of ASPs and a rising cost base.
