On Tuesday at 10:29 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Banpu Public Company Limited (SET: BANPU) rose by 1.22% or THB 0.06 to THB 4.96, with a trading value of THB 326.77 million.
Kingsford Securities stated that BANPU posted a net profit of 1.05 billion baht for the third quarter of 2025, reversing losses from the previous quarter, which recorded a net loss of 945 million baht, and from the same period last year, which saw a net loss of 830 million baht.
The positive swing was mainly attributed to lower losses from foreign exchange rates and increased gains from derivative instruments. However, excluding these one-off items, the core business continued to post a loss as improved operational profit was outweighed by high financial and tax expenses.
Looking ahead, the analyst expects BANPU’s core business to gradually recover in the fourth quarter, supported by both the coal and natural gas segments, which may see higher sales volumes and average prices due to winter demand.
This is anticipated to offset weaker performance from the U.S. power business, which is set to decline following the summer season. Nevertheless, sustained electricity demand from data centers is likely to keep power prices elevated, while the BLCP and HPC power plants in Thailand are projected to see a slowdown.
BANPU’s operating results for the nine months of 2025 were better than expected, leading Kingsford Securities to revise its full-year forecast to a net loss of 784 million baht.
This projection is based on a total coal sales volume (ITM, CEY, Traded, Mongolia) of 34.5 million tons, close to last year’s level, with an average coal price (NEX) of US$110 per ton and an average gas price (Henry Hub) of US$2.6 per Mcf. For 2026, the brokerage firm maintains the net profit forecast at 2.46 billion baht.
Kingsford maintains a ‘Hold’ recommendation on BANPU, updating its target price for 2026 to 5.50 baht per share, based on a PBV multiplier of 0.50x, or minus one standard deviation from the historical average.
The recommendation is supported by the strong cash flow of the coal and gas businesses, which should allow BANPU to deliver consistent dividend yields of around 6% annually. Additionally, the planned merger into NewCo in the third to fourth quarters of 2026 is expected to unlock long-term value and gradually improve BANPU’s financial profile.
