Amid a renewed surge in global gold buying, China added an estimated 15 tonnes of the precious metal to its foreign exchange reserves in September, far outpacing the official figure of 1.24 tonnes reported by Beijing, according to Goldman Sachs Group.
The data highlights intensified central bank activity after a muted summer, with Goldman analysts estimating that central banks worldwide bought 64 tonnes of gold in September, a sharp jump from just 21 tonnes in August.
Analysts note that the robust purchasing momentum likely extended into November, as central banks continue to diversify their holdings to safeguard against geopolitical and financial risks. This accumulation has been a key catalyst for gold’s rally over the past three years, which propelled the metal to record highs of above US$4,380 per ounce in October before a recent pullback.
Goldman Sachs maintains that official figures may understate actual buying volumes, as some countries tend to under-report acquisitions. The bank wrote in a note Monday that it is expected that elevated central bank gold accumulation will be a multi-year trend, highlighting ongoing diversification of reserves.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects average monthly central bank purchases to remain at approximately 80 tonnes through the fourth quarter and into 2026. The firm projects that spot gold could reach US$4,900 per ounce by the close of next year, underpinned by continued sovereign acquisitions and anticipated inflows from private investors, as the U.S. Federal Reserve pursues a more accommodative monetary policy.
On Monday, spot gold traded near $4,013 per ounce, marking about 55% gain for the year. Prices have been bolstered by heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainties, an uptick in exchange-traded fund inflows, and forecasts for further U.S. interest rate reductions.
