Krungsri Securities has a slightly negative view on the latest tourist arrival report, leading to a neutral outlook on Thailand’s aviation sector amid weak figures far from pre-covid level.
For the week of 10–16 November, total tourist arrivals reached 0.69 million people. This figure marked a small week-on-week (w-w) decrease of -1%, contrary to analyst expectations for continued sequential growth during the traditional high tourist season. Moreover, this recent period saw a year-on-year (y-y) decline of -8%, marking the third consecutive week of y-y contraction.
The drop in arrivals was primarily driven by major source markets. Year-on-year decreases were notable among tourists from China (-33% y-y) and South Korea (-9% y-y), alongside visitors outside the top five source countries (-7% y-y). Current cumulative arrivals for 2025, covering 1 January through 16 November, stand at 28.28 million, representing a -7% decline year-on-year.
Despite the slight recent contraction, the majority of tourist markets have surpassed their pre-COVID-19 levels; however, China (41% of pre-COVID volume) and South Korea (86% of pre-COVID volume) are still lagging. Overall tourist arrivals are currently equivalent to 88% of pre-COVID figures.
Investment Perspective and Top Picks
Krungsri Securities analysts view the recent slowdown as Slightly Negative. The research anticipates that the peak of the post-COVID-19 recovery phase has passed, and sector-wide earnings are forecast to contract in 2H25F and 2026F, estimating a decline of -18% y-y in 2026F.
Despite the cautious sector outlook, Krungsri Securities names BA (Bangkok Airways) as its Top Pick within the group, assigning a Buy rating and a target price of THB 24.00 per share. This preference is based on BA’s standout performance, including robust profit growth in 3Q25 (+55% y-y and +159% q-q), which exceeded the sector average. Additionally, analysts expect a positive short-term catalyst from definitive clarity regarding the U-Tapao airport project.
Looking ahead, the sector is forecast to return to growth next week, aligning with seasonal trends. Krungsri Research forecasts total tourist arrivals for 2025F and 2026F at 34 million (-4% y-y) and 36 million (+6% y-y), respectively, while the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) forecasts are marginally lower at 33.5 million (-6% y-y) and 34.9 million (+4% y-y).
