The market projected that in 2026, the performance of petrochemical and refinery stocks will grow more than 100% compared to 2025, led by Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL), Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC), and Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP). These are considered market leaders and are expected to stimulate investors’ interest in this group.
Indorama Ventures
Krungsri Securities forecasts that IVL’s profit in 2026 will make a strong rebound, growing 189% compared to 2025. The recovery is expected to start from 4Q25 as the pressure from emergency maintenance shutdowns and trade retaliation measures eases, while competition is expected to decrease due to slower new supply entering the market.
Additionally, the company has begun to realize positive impacts from rising PET prices in the US and improved operating rates. A key strength lies in its geographically diversified production base, which supports long-term competitive capability. At the same time, China’s supply restriction policy in the industry is starting to yield more positive results.
For 4Q25, performance is expected to “start recovering” and be better than 3Q due to positive factors from entering the high season (winter), with PET business in the US and Europe benefiting from colder-than-usual winter that boosts demand for polyester fibers for apparel.
The impact of unplanned plant shutdowns will also diminish compared to the previous quarter as competition subsides, with industry competitive pressure expected to gradually ease due to lower levels of new supply entering the market.
Currently, the stock is trading at a 2026 P/BV (price to book value) lower than 1.0 times (as of March 2026), reflecting that the industry cycle may have already passed the lowest point and is recovering. The target price is assessed at THB 24.00, while the IAA Consensus gives an average price target of THB 21.20 per share.
Star Petroleum Refining
Krunsri forecasts that SPRC’s profit in 2026 will grow by 177% compared to last year, with positive signals from late 2025 due to a change in how shutdown costs are booked as capital expenditure, reducing earnings volatility and spreading out the impact.
In the short term, from 4Q25 to 1Q26, the outlook is positive as actual expenses will be lower than market expectations. In 4Q25, robust gross refining margin (GRM) will offset repair costs, and the industry’s supply shortage underpins high margins through the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
4Q25 is expected to keep recovering compared to the previous quarter because the refining margin is still high, which helps make up for maintenance shutdown costs. Efficiency post-maintenance is expected to improve, as management estimates the major maintenance period will be reduced by 20% (from 30 days to 24 days), allowing production to restart more quickly. After completion, the refinery will be able to process more light crude and increase yields of high-value products by about 3-5%.
Externally, in 4Q25, tight oil supply due to unplanned refinery maintenance in the US, Africa, and Asia, and infrastructure damage in Russia, will keep product spreads high.
Krungsri Securities maintains a “Buy” recommendation for SPRC, with a 2026 price target of THB 7.60, and IAA Consensus presents an average target of THB 6.95.
Bangchak Corp
BCP’s profit is expected to increase by 100% compared to last year. The main drivers are the gas-fired power plant in the US, wind power plants in Laos and Vietnam, and a solar project in Taiwan. Although the commercial operation date (COD) for the Taiwan project was delayed and some M&A deals were suspended, there is still upside from the planned adjustment in capacity payment of the PJM market in the US at the end of this year.
BCP is expected to show “remarkable recovery” in 4Q25 as the market’s gross refining margin (GRM) is estimated to exceed 10 USD/barrel, up from 7.4 USD/barrel in 3Q/2025. Product spreads have increased: gasoline by 42%, gasoil by 32%, and jet fuel by 44% due to supply tightness in several regions.
Specifically, BCP benefits from the Sriracha refinery upgrade, which allows full-year processing of heavy crude, lowers production costs, and takes advantage of full-year VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) shipping for greater economies of scale.
In marketing, commercial customer expansion, full-year revenue from new COD power plants, and an ongoing tender offer to delist Bangchak Sriracha Public Company Limited (BSRC) at a ratio of 6.5 BSRC to 1 BCP are expected to support bottom line growth.
Analysts note that BCP has passed through various negative sentiment adjustments and now trades below 1 time P/BV for 2026, offering attractive value for fundamental investment. The price target is THB 44, and the IAA Consensus’s average target is THB 38.87 per share.
