On Wednesday at 11:03 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) surged by 1.13% or THB 0.50 to THB 44.75, with a trading value of THB 130.56 million.
KGI Securities (Thailand) has upgraded its recommendation on CBG to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell,’ raising the target price to THB 51.00 per share, up from THB 47.00. The brokerage firm cited a positive short-term risk/reward profile for CBG, supported by several favorable factors, while noting ongoing geopolitical tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as a risk to monitor.
CBG plans to launch a new 12-baht SKU in mid-2026, which could cause some positive cannibalization of the existing 10-baht SKU, aiming to expand its domestic market share and increase price competition against Osotspa (SET: OSP).
Domestic energy drink sales are expected to hit a new record in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 5% quarter-on-quarter (after 19% QoQ growth in 3Q25). Market share by volume could reach 28-29% by year-end, up from 27.6% in October 2025. Revenue from rice spirit sales is also seen reaching a record high, while beer sales remain weak.
Operations in Cambodia appear to have bottomed out after order disruptions between late August and October 2025. KGI anticipates remaining capacity will be allocated to OEM manufacturing, which could support quarter-on-quarter growth despite ongoing uncertainties. Cambodian revenue in 3Q25 dropped sharply to THB 230 million, down 70% QoQ and YoY.
For 2026, management targets 20% year-on-year revenue growth, aiming for a market share of 32% to surpass OSP, supported by expanding distribution through traditional trade channels. Domestic energy drink and third-party distribution revenues are projected to grow about 25% YoY, helping offset ongoing weakness in the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) region.
Positive factors from Myanmar and China are also expected to support growth. The utilization rate of the Myanmar plant should increase in 4Q25 as raw material sourcing improves compared to 3Q25, intensifying competition for OSP. Growth strategy in China is expected to become clearer in 1Q26, involving a new local partner considered more promising than Tsingtao, providing additional upside potential.
KGI views CBG’s weak 3Q25 earnings as the low point for the year, with a strong quarter-on-quarter recovery expected in 4Q25, although still lower year-on-year at THB 630-650 million. Earnings for the first half of 2026 are forecast to gradually recover from a high base in 1H25, with stronger performance anticipated in the second half of 2026.
Nonetheless, the analyst has trimmed its 2025 core profit estimate by 3%, reflecting higher SG&A expenses, and also revised down its 2026-2027 earnings forecasts by 8-9%, due to elevated SG&A costs and a projected 75% year-on-year drop in Cambodian revenue to around THB 200 million per quarter.
