KGI Securities (Thailand) foresees a positive outlook for the Thai hotel sector, forecasting that the ongoing high tourism season in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a broader tourism rebound in 2026 will drive sector growth.
Hotel stocks are seen as attractive given their low earnings expectations for 2025 and the potential for robust recovery in the following year. KGI projects core earnings for the sector to increase by 5.6% year-on-year in 2025 and by 13.5% in 2026.
The recovery, however, has been challenged by a decline in Chinese tourist numbers. According to Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports, November 2025 saw international arrivals fall 7.5% year-on-year to 2.91 million, with the first eleven months totaling 29.6 million visitors, down 7.3% from the previous year.
Chinese tourist arrivals dropped 33.8% year-on-year. By contrast, arrivals from Europe and South Asia increased by 12.8% and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively.
Reflecting weaker international arrivals, KGI has revised its 2025 forecast for foreign tourists to 32.9 million (down 7.3% year-on-year), primarily due to sluggish Chinese demand and potential declines in Malaysian visitor numbers following flooding in Hat Yai and other southern provinces. The analyst sees a recovery in 2026, projecting 34.2 million arrivals, a 3.9% year-on-year increase.
Among listed hotel operators, KGI expects Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL), The Erawan Group (ERW), and Minor International (MINT) to deliver strong earnings results in the fourth quarter of 2025, benefiting from the high season for domestic tourism and improved revenue per available room (RevPar) from overseas properties.
S Hotels and Resorts (SHR) is also anticipated to report solid fourth-quarter results on the back of robust advance bookings in Thailand and the Maldives, as well as the completion of major renovations at its properties.
Notably, the brokerage firm pointed out that occupancy rates and RevPar for CENTEL grew 7% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, from October to November, with ERW following suit. These positive trends are expected to extend into the first quarter of 2026, supporting optimism for both MINT and SHR as well.
Reflecting the anticipated positive momentum for domestic tourism stocks during the high season, KGI gives ‘Outperform’ ratings for CENTEL (target price at THB 37.50) and ERW (target price at THB 3.25).
