Swine prices in Vietnam staged a significant recovery in December, according to the latest analysis from FSS International Investment Advisory (FSSIA), reflecting a positive outlook for Thai exporters.
Prices in Vietnam jumped to VND63,000–68,000 per kilogram by late December, averaging VND65,000/kg nationwide after dropping earlier in the quarter due to flooding and supply liquidation. This rebound is attributed to tighter supply and recovering seasonal demand, with prices anticipated to remain firm ahead of the Tet holiday in mid-February, potentially supporting earnings growth for meat producers in the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, China’s swine market continues to struggle. Prices lingered at CNY11.7/kg in December, well below breakeven and further pressuring sector profitability, with a quarter-to-date drop of 15.5% quarter-on-quarter and 38.1% year-on-year. FSSIA expects some recovery in the first quarter of 2026 during the Chinese New Year, but the outlook remains cautious.
Thailand’s swine market shows more resilience. Local swine prices increased to THB66/kg in December, a 6.5% month-on-month rise, though still 9.5% below last year’s levels. The fourth quarter-to-date average was THB61.3/kg, and FSSIA expects prices to trend higher, potentially reaching THB70–72/kg during the Chinese New Year thanks to robust seasonal demand.
Chicken prices in Thailand also rebounded in December to THB38.5/kg due to strong exports and firmer swine prices, with the average for the quarter at THB37.2/kg. Chicken by-product prices rose nearly 10% month-on-month, and the segment benefits from subdued feed costs. Corn prices fell to THB9.8/kg in the quarter, and soybean meal remained relatively low, creating a favorable cost environment for meat producers through late 2025 and into early 2026.
Despite the slight recovery in December, weaker meat prices for most of the fourth quarter lead FSSIA to forecast sector earnings of THB6.21 billion for 4Q25, down 29.2% quarter-on-quarter and 2.9% year-on-year. All companies are likely to see quarterly earnings declines, with CPF expected to report a year-on-year drop due to ongoing equity losses from its China subsidiary.
Looking into 2026, FSSIA does not expect the meat price upcycle witnessed in 2025 to persist, while raw material prices are seen stabilizing. The report recommends monitoring grain prices in the second half of next year as weather conditions shift toward El Niño, which could impact margins.
FSSIA maintains a BUY recommendation on the sector, naming TFG as its top pick for the first quarter of 2026 due to its exposure to rising Thai and Vietnamese pork prices. CPF could become more attractive as China’s swine prices recover and stabilize above breakeven levels.
In addition, FSSIA rates BUY on BTG, TFG and GFPT at a target price of THB 17.60, THB 5.25 and THB 10.40 per share, respectively. Meanwhile, the firm rates HOLD on CPF at THB 21.50 per share.
