Thitima Chucherd, Head of Macroeconomic Research at the SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC), revealed that the global economy in 2026 is expected to remain resilient but at a slightly lower level.
Growth is projected at around 2.5%, decelerating slightly from 2025 as many countries have already implemented stimulus measures and boosted exports. The impact of the U.S. tariffs will become increasingly evident next year at the country level.
SCB EIC forecasts the U.S. economic growth at 1.8%, Europe at 1.3%, Japan at 0.9%, China at 4.3%, and India at 6.2%, which is significantly above the global average. Thailand’s economy is expected to expand by only 1.5%, amid external challenges, domestic vulnerabilities, and reduced fiscal space.
On global policy interest rate trends, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates gradually toward 3%. However, the market must closely watch the Fed’s stance under its new chair, as support for rate cuts may shift. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already lowered rates to the cycle’s lowest level. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to hike rates, contrary to other major central banks.
At the same time, Wachirawat Banchuen, Senior Financial Market Strategist at SCB Financial Markets (SCB FM), commented that, by the end of 2025, the baht is expected to move within the THB 31.70–32.20 per US dollar range, with a slight appreciation possible due to seasonal factors.
Over the past 20 years, the US dollar typically depreciated by around 1% in December compared to November, while over the past 10 years, the baht tended to weaken by an average of 0.8% in December compared to November.
For 2026, in the first quarter, the baht may strengthen slightly before a turning point in Q2 onward as the Fed concludes its accommodative policy. Foreign capital may start flowing back into the U.S. assets, both equities and debt instruments, causing the US dollar to strengthen again and the baht to weaken. By the end of 2026, the baht is expected to move in the 33–34 per US dollar range.
