On Monday, the share price of Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC) at the time of 2.28 p.m. was at THB 320, a THB 7 or 2.24% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,841.66 million.
Meanwhile, the share price of True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) at the same time was at THB 11.30, a THB 0.4 or 3.67% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,762.67 million.
Krungsri Securities stated that it expects the telecommunication sector’s core earnings in 4Q25 to reach a record high of THB 17.7 billion, up 39% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter. This strong earnings growth is driven by both ADVANC and TRUE.
ADVANC is projected to post core profit of THB 12.4 billion, rising 35% YoY and 4% QoQ, while TRUE is set to report a record quarterly profit of THB 5.2 billion, increasing 52% YoY and 11% QoQ.
Key profit drivers for both companies include higher revenues and effective cost control, particularly cost savings from the most recent spectrum auction. Industry service revenue excluding IC (Interconnection Charge) is expected to jump 4% YoY and 2% QoQ, supported by both mobile and fixed broadband (FBB) segments. Growth in subscriber numbers along with higher ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) in both mobile and FBB segments also bolstered topline growth this quarter.
Additionally, EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortization) margin is expected to expand to 56.9% in 4Q25 from 49.7% in 4Q24, mainly due to lower spectrum license lease expenses after the latest auction.
The outlook for the sector remains positive. For the full year 2025, analysts maintain their forecast for sector profit to surge another 40% YoY and rise 12% YoY in 2026, supported by both ADVANC and TRUE.
Analysts forecast ADVANC’s profit will jump 25% YoY in 2025 and another 9% YoY in 2026, while TRUE’s profit will soar by a remarkable 97% YoY in 2025 and rise 20% YoY in 2026.
TRUE’s faster profit growth compared to ADVANC is attributed to its greater room for benefit reductions, as evident from the profit gap of about THB 10 billion per quarter for ADVANC and THB 4.5 billion per quarter for TRUE, even though revenue bases are quite similar.
In the analysts’ view, higher dividend payouts will be a new theme for the sector in 2026, as free cash flow (FCF) is expected to rise significantly, in line with a substantial decrease in license fee obligations.
Moreover, the industry’s EBITDA is likely to surge again in 2026, supported by higher revenue and a wider EBITDA margin. ADVANC’s dividend payout ratio in 2026 is projected to remain at 95%, while TRUE is forecast to increase its payout ratio to 60% in 2026 from 50% in 2025.
The recommendation remains “BUY” for both ADVANC and TRUE with target prices of THB 360 and THB 18.20 respectively, based on improving profit outlook and stronger free cash flow over the next three years. However, analysts favor TRUE over ADVANC due to its more attractive valuation and stronger profit growth momentum.
