Globlex Securities stated in an analysis that Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA)’s 4Q25 net profit is expected to ease to THB 611 million, slipping from THB 692 million a year earlier, amid stagnating ticket prices and intensified competitive pressures across the sector.
Despite these headwinds, the broker maintains confidence in BA’s mid-term outlook, citing anticipated upside from Samui Airport expansion, scheduled to begin in 2026, along with robust tourist flows to Samui Island.
In an effort to streamline operations and reduce expenses, BA retired three aircraft during 2025—including two leased and one Airbus A320—bringing its active fleet to 44 as of September. The fleet now comprises 23 Airbus A320s, 11 A319s, and a number of ATR 72-600s.
Maintenance costs have benefited from these changes, with Cost per Available Seat Kilometer (CASK) falling to THB 0.67 in the first nine months of 2025, down from THB 0.78 during the same period a year earlier. However, capacity cuts, particularly on the Samui route, resulted in a higher load factor exceeding 80%, compared to 76% load factor in BA’s overall routes in the first nine months of 2025.
Average ticket prices have held firm, remaining at THB 4,200, with Samui route fares reaching THB 4,500 to THB 4,600, a level supported by strong demand and minimal competition. Other domestic routes have faced greater pricing competition, as passengers increasingly fly to nearby international airports like Phuket, Chiang Mai, or Hat Yai, before using BA’s connections to reach Samui.
Looking ahead, Globlex views BA as a leading beneficiary of Thailand’s strengthening tourism industry in 2026 and 2027. Net profit is projected to benefit from both the 5-10% year-on-year increase in tourists traveling to Samui in the first nine months of 2025, as well as modest ticket price hikes and increased daily flights—rising from 43 in 2024 to the estimated 46 in 2025, and estimated 47 in 2026. Further growth could follow if BA increases flights up to the regulatory cap of 73 per day.
The company recently concluded a share buyback program, which ran from June to December 2025 and saw as many as 64 million shares repurchased with a budget cap of THB 1 billion, averaging THB 15.6 per share and representing about 3% of outstanding shares. Despite the end of this program, analysts expect BA’s fundamentals and a prospective profit growth in 2026-27 to support its share price. Globlex maintains a “BUY” recommendation and a target price of THB 21.3.
