Maybank Securities has released its latest forecast for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SET: SCGP), projecting a core profit of THB 848 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a substantial year-on-year increase, with profits surging more than thirteenfold compared to the same quarter last year. However, the forecast indicates a 17% decline from the previous quarter, attributed primarily to a seasonal uptick in freight costs during the final quarter of the year.
Despite the quarter-on-quarter drop, The brokerage anticipates SCGP’s gross profit margin (GPM) will remain steady at 17.9%, compared to 18% in the previous quarter. This stability stands in sharp contrast to the same period last year, when the margin was 13.8%. The improvement in margins year-on-year is driven by a significant 21% reduction in average old corrugated container (AOCC) costs, which are a major input for the company’s packaging operations.
Sales volume for the fourth quarter is estimated at 1.47 million tons, representing a 5% year-on-year increase and a 2% rise from the previous quarter. Growth in sales was supported by advanced orders from customers in Vietnam and Indonesia, who are preparing for the upcoming holiday season in the first quarter of 2026. In contrast, domestic demand in Thailand was hampered by recent flooding in the southern region, which exerted downward pressure on overall volumes.
Extraordinary items for the quarter are expected to play a key role in SCGP’s financial performance. Notably, Maybank highlights a THB 1 billion gain from negative goodwill related to the acquisition of MYPAK, as well as THB 600 million in costs related to organizational restructuring. Factoring in these items, The analyst firm forecasts a net profit of THB 1.2 billion—a turnaround from the net loss of THB 57 million in the same quarter last year, and a 31% recovery from the previous quarter.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, Maybank remains cautiously optimistic. The broker expects continued recovery for SCGP, underpinned by a reduction in restructuring expenses and a further 10% quarter-on-quarter decrease in AOCC costs, reflecting a lagged impact from the previous quarter. While sales volume is expected to remain stable, robust demand ahead of Thailand’s Songkran festival should counterbalance the effect of front-loaded orders from Vietnam and Indonesia.
Nevertheless, The securities house maintains a “Hold” recommendation on SCGP, noting that much of the anticipated recovery already appears to be priced in. SCGP is currently trading at 18x its estimated 2026 price/earnings (P/E) ratio—higher than the sector average of 15.5x—while its projected 2026 profit growth of 16% lags behind the sector’s expected 28% growth.
SCGP’s official earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be released on January 27, 2026.
