On Tuesday at 10:56 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI) rose by 2.94% or THB 0.40 to THB 14.00, with a trading value of THB 80.52 million.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) estimates ICHI will report a net profit of 326 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 57.8% jump year-on-year. Excluding one-off tax items recorded in 4Q24, normalized profit is forecast to increase 21% from the previous year.
The anticipated year-on-year expansion in profitability is attributed mainly to growth outside the traditional tea segment. Revenues from non-tea products are expected to rise, reaching 17.4% of total income, up from 13.1% in 4Q24. Alkaline water was cited as the leading product in this category. Meanwhile, revenue generated from OEM channels is projected to remain stable or decline slightly on a sequential basis due to seasonal factors.
As ICHI is currently reviewing growth targets for 2026, the brokerage maintains its existing assumption of a 6.4% increase in annual earnings, driven largely by higher domestic sales. The analyst cited a rebound in the green tea market, supported by a shift to El Niño weather conditions, as well as continued double-digit growth for alkaline water, underpinned by consumer health trends and robust sales of large bottles.
The earnings forecast for 2026 is unchanged at 1.33 billion baht, representing a 7.4% rise from the previous year. Finansia sees potential for further upside if non-tea products keep expanding and new OEM customers – potentially one or two more clients – are secured.
Reflecting these favorable growth drivers, the 2026 target price has been revised upward to 15 baht per share. The revision is based on raising the target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 15 times (-0.5 SD) from the earlier 13 times (-1.0 SD), indicating greater confidence in growth but retaining a cautious outlook.
A dividend payout of about 0.55 baht per share is anticipated for the second half of 2025. This equates to a dividend yield of 4.1%. Including earlier payments made in the year, the estimated annual dividend yield stands near 8.0%.
ICHI’s financial position remains sound, with no interest-bearing debt. By the end of 2025, the debt-to-equity ratio is predicted to remain low at 0.24 times, while return on equity is projected to stay at approximately 24%.
