Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) anticipates a stronger-than-expected performance from Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited (SET: MAJOR) in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing robust admissions and disciplined cost control as primary drivers.
Pre-exceptional profit for 4Q25 is estimated at THB 230 million, up 15% year-on-year and 59% quarter-on-quarter. This improvement is set to lift full-year 2025 profit by 7% above previous forecasts, representing only a 7% decline year-on-year—a significant recovery after steeper declines of 56% and 51% posted in the first and second quarters, respectively.
Despite Tee Yod 3 generating nearly 50% less revenue than its predecessor, Tee Yod 2 in the same period last year, total admissions are expected to grow 3% year-on-year. Aided by tight cost controls, MAJOR is set to report a 5% reduction in admission costs, a 12% decrease in popcorn costs, and a 10% drop in SG&A expenses.
The marginal 3% decline anticipated in total revenue is primarily attributed to a 20% drop in advertising revenue and the effects of a national mourning period. If this period is excluded, core operating profit should post a year-on-year gain.
Looking into 2026, KKPS notes that MAJOR plans to extend its cost-saving initiatives across admissions, concessions, and SG&A. Efforts include returning surplus rental space, lowering popcorn ingredient and maintenance costs, and further reducing personnel and marketing expenses.
Admissions in 1Q26 are expected to benefit from the release of Avatar 3, projected to contribute around THB 100 million. A low earnings base in 1Q25 should also support strong year-on-year growth. Moreover, with the mourning period concluded, ancillary revenues—including advertising, bowling, and karaoke—are forecast to rebound.
Following these, KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on MAJOR, highlighting supportive short-term earnings momentum and setting a target price of THB 11.60 per share.
