On Friday, the share price of Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BH) at the time of 2.23 p.m. was at THB 166.50, a THB 3 or 1.83% increase with a total trading value of THB 947.95 million.
KGI Securities (Thailand) (KGI) expects that BH will report a net profit of approximately THB 1.91 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year but a decrease of 6.0% quarter-on-quarter. The full-year net profit for 2025 is expected to be THB 7.54 billion, representing a 3.0% decrease YoY.
The 4Q25 net profit and the full-year 2025 forecast account for 25.9% and 102.1% of the annual estimate, respectively. The profit forecast reflects key factors such as a strong recovery in revenue from both Thai and international patients, the absence of negative impact YoY from state-sponsored Kuwaiti patients, robust margin management, and efficient control of the selling and administrative expenses to sales ratio (SG&A/sales).
However, the QoQ decrease in 4Q25 profit results from seasonality in December, despite solid patient numbers in October and November.
Key assumptions in the 4Q25 forecast are a 1.0% YoY and a 0.4% QoQ revenue increase to THB 6.52 billion, driven by an increase in patients from the Middle East (excluding state-sponsored Kuwaiti patients), Myanmar, and Thai patients impacted by the rainy season shifting into Q4.
Gross margin is expected at 51.3%, up from 49.5% in 4Q24 but down from 52.9% in 3Q25, reflecting a rise in treatment complexity YoY but a decline QoQ.
The SG&A/sales ratio is estimated at 17.0%, compared to 17.7% in 4Q24 and 16.3% in 3Q25, indicating better cost control YoY but influenced by year-end accounting adjustments QoQ. Revenue composition in 4Q25 is expected to be 35% from Thai patients and 65% from international patients, similar to the previous year but higher than the previous quarter.
For 1Q26, preliminary forecasts expect profit growth YoY from a low base, as last year did not see patients from Kuwait. BH continues to generate revenue from other Middle Eastern patients, as well as from Myanmar and Bangladesh, supported by strong revenue growth and margins in the peak quarter.
3Q25 revenue grew both YoY and QoQ to THB 6.49 billion, despite the absence of revenue from state-sponsored Kuwaiti patients.
Meanwhile, the lump-sum health insurance plan for existing policies remains in effect and is not banned for additional policy sales. Downside risks may arise from negative feedback towards the use of co-payment health insurance by some insurers.
The brokerage firm maintains a “BUY” recommendation on BH, with a target price for 2026 based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method at THB 220, using a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 8.2% and Terminal Growth of 1%.
