Kasikorn Securities (KS) organized the KS C Series event under the topic “Investment Perspectives of Insurance Companies from 2026 Onwards.” Over 50 domestic fund managers and investors attended the session. Sarangsri Limparangsri, Chief Investment Officer of Thai Life Insurance Public Company Limited (SET: TLI), participated to share insights.
Analyst at KS reported that a key highlight from the event was TLI management’s view that the reduction of the risk-based capital reserve (Risk Charge) for Thai equity investments by the Office of Insurance Commission (OIC), from 25% to 18% (i.e., for every THB 100 invested in Thai equities, the capital reserve required drops from 25% to 18%), will provide greater flexibility for management.
However, investment decisions will still largely be driven by market outlook more than regulatory changes. As such, there are currently no immediate plans to increase the proportion of equity investments.
The reduction in reserves is expected to boost the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) by approximately 50–60% from the third quarter of 2025 level of 569%. Nonetheless, this is not deemed significant as the figure already far exceeds the OIC’s minimum required level of 140%.
Regarding asset allocation, the investment ratio is expected to remain at 90% in fixed income and 10% in equities. There may be opportunities to increase investment in the Thai equity market if greater clarity emerges after the February 2026 elections. Meanwhile, investment income is expected to remain stable in the short to medium term since most yields are already locked in from long-term bonds and bond futures contracts.
KS further stated that it maintains a neutral outlook for TLI’s investment prospects as there is no significant upside from the changes in OIC’s risk-based capital regulation. The downside risk to investment income from potential interest rate cuts is seen as limited since TLI has already locked in yields for the short to medium term.
The net profit outlook for TLI in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be THB 3 billion, up 14% quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by higher insurance business profit. Pre-tax and operating profit of the insurance business is estimated at THB 3.6 billion, up 12%, due to lower claim payouts compared to the third quarter of 2025, which saw higher claims during the rainy season.
Moreover, regular investment income (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to reach THB 602 million, remaining stable from the prior quarter. For the first nine months of 2025, TLI’s normal profit is projected to reach THB 11.5 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year.
KS maintains a “Buy” recommendation for TLI, with a target price of THB 13.80 based on a Price to Earnings Ratio or P/EV (a financial ratio used to assess the valuation of shares) of 0.8x (as of 2Q25). TLI is considered a stable company with a consistently high dividend yield of approximately 5%, alongside stable growth prospects. Additionally, TLI’s financial indicators under TFRS 17 standards remain outstanding compared to domestic and global peers.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) stated that shares of TLI are currently trading at a P/EV of 0.6x, which is lower than “AIA” at 1.7x and below the overall global insurance sector. Meanwhile, the stock has upside opportunities from increasing market share.
At the same time, the dividend yield remains attractive at 5% with potential for further increase, supported by robust CAR. Additionally, recent OIC capital reserve adjustment is expected to boost CAR by about another 20%, and since the beginning of 2025, TLI’s CAR has increased by only 2% compared to around 20% in banking stocks, as such this could potentially attract more fund inflows for TLI.
Supporting factors include the forecasted 6% profit growth in 2026, providing strong upside compared to the banking sector average of 4.5% decrease, as well as the banks’ dividend yield of 5–7%. The P/BV for TLI is also similar at approximately 0.8x, but TLI carries lower risk as it does not face issues related to asset quality. Therefore, a “Buy” recommendation is given, with a target price of THB 13.50.
