Shares in Thai Airways International fell as much as 25% to THB 5.25 per share at the open on Wednesday after a significant volume of shares became eligible for trading following the expiration of the silent period on February 4. The increase in freely tradable shares heightened investor concerns over short-term pressure, prompting strong selling activity.
On February 4, more than 6.6 billion Thai Airways shares, representing over 25% of the company’s registered capital, were released for trading as the silent period restrictions ended. Most of these shares originated from debt-to-equity conversions at a low average cost of 2.5452 baht each, as well as from capital increases at 4.48 baht per share, both are below the current trading level. Prior to this date, just 1.9 billion shares, or roughly 7% of registered capital, were actively traded in the market, underscoring the substantial jump in available liquidity.
Analysts at Krungsri Securities expressed a negative outlook regarding the potential for further price declines, noting that strategic investors, the Ministry of Finance, state-owned banks, and major cooperatives are expected to retain about 61.5% of the newly unlocked shares, while the remainder—over 2.5 billion low-cost shares—remain at risk of being sold for profit-taking. This supply risk is compounded by ongoing legal uncertainties surrounding challenges to the company’s recent shareholder meeting decisions and concerns about possible state intervention following recent board changes.
Despite these immediate headwinds, Krungsri Securities stated that Thai Airways’ stock price has already incorporated much of the negative sentiment, currently trading at a projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of around 8 times—lower than the regional airline average of approximately 10 times. The firm noted an estimated 14% upside potential and forecast a dividend yield of 4.3% in 2025, reflecting an anticipated payout of 0.32 baht per share.
A further 19.8 billion Thai Airways shares, making up 70% of registered capital, remain under silent period restrictions, due to expire in August 2026. Most of these shares also result from past debt restructurings.
Krungsri Securities maintained a “Neutral” recommendation on THAI, setting a target price of 8.50 baht. The firm cautioned that the stock will face near-term pressure as a result of the two major silent period expiries in 2026 but sees better value emerging at current price levels.
