Thailand’s leading telecom operator, Advanced Info Service (SET: ADVANC), has reported robust full-year 2025 results, outpacing consensus estimates and surprising the market with a significant special dividend. The Board of Directors approved a dividend payment of THB 8.41 per share, along with a special dividend from retained earnings at a rate of THB 19.00 per share. This brings the total annual dividend payout to THB 34.30 per share, including an interim dividend payment of THB 6.89 paid on September 3, 2025.
Additionally, analysts remain bullish on ADVANC, though they caution that growth in 2026 may face headwinds from rising costs and capital expenditures.
Citi highlights ADVANC’s FY25 normalized net profit of THB 46.0 billion, a 32% year-on-year surge and marginally above both Citi and consensus estimates. The company also announced a one-time special dividend of THB 19 per share—totaling THB 56 billion—which will push ADVANC’s FY25 dividend yield to an impressive 10%. While this special payout delighted investors, Citi notes that such one-off dividends are unlikely to recur in the near future. The payout is expected to increase the company’s leverage and interest expenses, which could weigh on analyst estimates.
Looking ahead, Citi warns of a more challenging FY26. The company has noted that guidance points to moderated revenue growth and margins, alongside a significant 15–35% year-on-year rise in capital expenditure targets. The firm gives a target price of THB 350 per share on ADVANC.
JPMorgan maintains an “Overweight” rating on ADVANC, echoing the positive surprise on both dividends and earnings. The proposed FY25 dividend per share (DPS) of THB 15.3, coupled with the special dividend, exceeds Bloomberg consensus. ADVANC’s normalized net income for 4Q surpassed consensus by 14%. While service revenue aligns with JPMorgan’s estimates, EBITDA guidance trails expectations, potentially signaling upcoming investments that could pressure margins in the short term but support growth in the longer term. JPMorgan gave ADVANC a target price at THB 370 per share.
DBS notes that ADVANC’s 4Q25 normalized profit at THB 12.5 billion, up 35% year-on-year. The bank adjusted its 2026–2027 earnings forecasts upwards by 4%, in light of stronger-than-expected 2025 financial results, and raised its target price to THB 420 (from THB 330). Both the regular and special dividends are cited as key positives.
CGSI adds in a comment that ADVANC management’s guidance of 3–5% year-on-year core service revenue growth in 2026, primarily driven by mobile and broadband, as new non-mobile enterprise segments are unlikely to be significant yet. The company sees no pressing competitive threats in its core operations. EBITDA is expected to grow 2–4% in 2026, lagging service revenue due to higher IT operating costs for system upgrades and increased content spending to support cross-selling strategies.
ADVANC’s management confirmed the special dividend is strictly one-time and is designed to maximize shareholder value while maintaining a healthy debt profile. After payout, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will remain below 2.5x, in line with S&P’s investment grade requirements, and is set to decrease from 2027 onward. Capex in 2026 is planned at 15% of revenue (with 55–60% for mobile, 20% for broadband, 10% for enterprise, and 15% for IT/other) to support growth in data consumption and network upgrades.
CGSI maintains an “Add” rating and a target price of THB 349. Details on the company’s 2026 strategy are expected at the AIS Investor Day on 6 February 2026.
