Following the earnings result of PTT Exploration and Production (SET: PTTEP), Finansia Syrus Securities stated that the company reported a net profit of USD 543 million for Q4/2025 (approximately THB 17 billion), representing a 38% quarter-on-quarter jump and a marginal 0.1% increase year-on-year, meeting market expectations.
Excluding special items such as oil price hedging gains, FX gains, and bargaining gains from the acquisition of Algeria’s Touat gas project, normalized operating profit stood at USD 401 million, up 7% QoQ but down 24% YoY. The profit was supported by a 6% QoQ and 8% YoY surge in sales volume to a record 539,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED), owing to full-quarter recognition from the MTJDA A-18 project, even as unit costs rose 2% QoQ and 10% YoY to USD 32.19/BOE, mainly from dry well write-offs. This was offset by profit contribution from the Touat project. The average selling price slightly dropped to USD 42.55/BOE.
For the full year 2025, PTTEP posted a net profit of USD 1.83 billion (THB 60 billion), a decrease of 18% YoY. Looking forward, profits in 2026 are expected to remain robust, bolstered by higher petroleum sales from asset acquisitions and expanded production at existing sites. Despite a slight forecasted drop in gas prices to USD 5.7/MMBTU, ongoing geopolitical risks may support global crude prices, with the oil market forecast to remain oversupplied by over 3 million barrels/day in 2026. The IAA consensus expects PTTEP’s 2026 net profit at THB 57.5 billion, with an average target price of THB 129.89.
PTTEP announced a 2H25 dividend of THB 4.65/share (XD on February 23), equating to a dividend yield of 3.62%.
Bualuang Securities (BLS) maintains a “Hold” recommendation with a target price of THB 135. The Q4/25 results were in line with BLS’ expectations and 8% above the market consensus, with a net profit of THB 17.5 billion, down 4% YoY but up 38% QoQ. Excluding special items—THB 388 million FX gain, THB 1,229 million from derivatives, and THB 2,974 million from acquisition gains—the core profit was THB 12.8 billion, down 29% YoY but up 5% QoQ.
BLS noted that the growth was mainly driven by increased sales volume, higher other income, and a substantial uptick in profit sharing from the Touat project (now fully recognized after acquiring a 22.1% stake). Average petroleum sales rose 8% YoY and 6% QoQ to 540,000 BOED in Q4/25, but the average selling price fell 7% YoY and 1% QoQ to USD 42.6/BOE, while unit costs increased 10% YoY and 2% QoQ to USD 32.2/BOE due to higher exploration, depreciation, and SG&A expenses.
Bualuang projects Q1/26 core profit to decrease YoY and QoQ owing to lower average selling prices, despite an expected slight increase in sales volume. Unit production cost is forecast to decrease YoY to around USD 30.0/BOE from lower royalties and depreciation.
The firm maintains its 2026 core profit estimate at THB 48.2 billion, representing a 20% YoY decline. While the global oil price outlook in 2026 remains subdued, PTTEP’s share price is seen as attractive, buoyed by robust dividend yields (expected at 6–7%). Ongoing geopolitical risks could present additional upside for oil prices and PTTEP’s profits.
