Stocks in PTT Group have once again captured investor attention ahead of the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings announcement, set for February 9. PTT Exploration and Production (SET: PTTEP) and PTT Global Chemical (SET: PTTGC) are leading the momentum, buoyed by expectations of robust financial performance. Analysts highlight improving global energy prices and ongoing cost management as core drivers underpinning this outlook.
These supportive fundamentals have translated into compelling profitability prospects and attractive dividend yields, making stocks in PTT Group appealing not only for short-term trading but also for medium-term dividend investors.
Consensus estimates place PTTEP’s target price at THB 126-137 per share, with the majority of brokerages maintaining “Buy” or “Speculative Buy” ratings. This reflects confidence in PTTEP’s resilience, consistent operational performance, and stable future cash flow generation.
InnovestX Securities forecasts PTTEP’s 4Q25 earnings to be the highest of the year, driven by special gains from oil hedging, foreign exchange benefits, and acquisition profits from Algeria’s Touat project. Improved sales volume is expected to support core profit recovery from the previous quarter. Despite some softening in the average selling price, a smaller decline compared to global oil prices underscores PTTEP’s effective pricing strategy.
Cost control remains a key strength, enabling PTTEP to maintain profitability through oil market volatility. The company is projected to pay annual dividends of THB 8 per share for 2025 and similar in 2026, equating to a robust 7% yield.
Krungsri Securities estimates a 4Q25 net profit of THB 17 billion for PTTEP, down 7% year-on-year but up 34% quarter-on-quarter, boosted by a THB 2.8 billion gain from the Touat acquisition. Looking ahead to 1Q26, normalized profit is expected at THB 14.5 billion. While lower average selling prices are anticipated, increased output from new production (notably the Ghasha field) and reduced costs are set to offset some pressure.
The company is also anticipated to deliver a second-half 2025 dividend of THB 3.5 per share—around a 3% yield. PTTEP remains a favored pick for dividend investment, with new production supporting sales growth through to 2027. The stock trades at attractive valuations and offers further upside potential from possible M&A activity.
Meanwhile, Pi Securities expects PTTGC to record a 4Q25 loss of THB 7.9 billion—less severe than last year’s THB 11 billion loss, but deeper than the previous quarter’s THB 2.9 billion shortfall. Asset impairment charges (THB 2.5 billion) and inventory losses (THB 1.3 billion) remain key drags. The core operation is forecast to lose around THB 5 billion, impacted by refinery shutdowns and weak margins.
Looking into 2026, Yuanta Securities (Thailand) predicts that PTTGC will see a slow but steady improvement, even as petrochemical spreads remain constrained. The company’s asset monetization plan should yield around THB 2.3 billion in first-quarter gains, offering vital support for an earnings and valuation rebound. Further aiding this recovery will be greater ethane feedstock availability and reduced plant maintenance.
The analyst firm emphasizes ongoing internal efficiency gains and divestments of underperforming assets as additional positives. With these factors in play, PTTGC is rated a “TRADING” stock with a fair value target set at THB 25 per share.
