Thailand’s foreign tourism sector witnessed stable arrivals in January 2026, despite facing a high base effect and shifts associated with the Lunar New Year period. According to the latest data from Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), the nation welcomed 3.28 million international tourists in January, translating to a slight 2.8% month-on-month (MoM) decline and an 11.6% drop compared to the same period last year. Total tourist revenue for the month was reported at THB 160.5 billion, down 0.4% MoM and 9.1% year-on-year (YoY).
Significantly, Chinese tourist arrivals demonstrated a turnaround, reaching over 400,000 visitors in January—a 7.5% month-on-month increase, though still 39.6% lower compared to last year. This YoY drop reflects both last year’s exceptionally high base, before a prominent abduction incident affected Chinese travel to Thailand, and the shift in timing for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industry observers expect that February’s numbers may show a strong positive YoY increase.
European arrivals remained robust, exceeding one million for the second month in a row (+6.7% MoM, +9.6% YoY), buoyed by high season travel. Arrivals from the Middle East, Americas, and South Asia decreased on a monthly basis but stayed higher than last year. ASEAN arrivals were notably weak due to ongoing conflict with Cambodia and diminished numbers from Malaysia.
Early data for February suggests growing momentum, with Chinese inbound flights rising to 166 daily between February 1–10 and approximately 150,000 arrivals recorded in the same period. If these trends persist, Chinese tourist numbers in Jan-Feb 2026 could match last year’s Lunar New Year period, signaling continued recovery.
Looking ahead, KKPS projects 3.18 million tourist arrivals for February 2026, with around 600,000 expected from China—a 50.6% increase MoM and up 62.3% YoY. Total arrivals for the first two months should reach 6.46 million, slightly below last year’s 6.83 million (-5.4% YoY), with Chinese numbers down by 3% YoY.
Despite the optimistic signs, KKPS maintains its 2026 forecast at 34.5 million arrivals, a 4.55% increase YoY, and projects a further rise to 35 million in 2027. However, the outlook is tempered by caution regarding sustained momentum from China and ASEAN markets, especially as post-holiday travel patterns emerge.
