Beyond Securities stated that the normalized profit of Cal-Comp Electronics (Thailand) PCL (SET: CCET), in 4Q25 is expected to reach THB 638 million, a decrease of 9% year-on-year (YoY), but an increase of 20% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). The slowdown from the same period last year reflects weaker revenue, while the recovery from the previous quarter results from more effective expense management.
The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 5.10%, close to the previous quarter, which still does not reflect sales from high-margin products in 4Q25. Selling, General & Administrative expenses (SG&A) to revenue are expected to drop to 3% from 3.31% in the previous quarter, which is still slightly higher than the 2.90% recorded in the same period last year. This is because there is no expectation of special provisions in 4Q25 as there were in the previous quarter, resulting in overall normalized profit recovering compared to the previous quarter, even though this is a low season.
For 2026, previous projections remain unchanged, despite 2025 revenue tending to beat estimates by about 5-10%. This is due to the anticipation of a continued low-season environment at the beginning of the year, which is likely to keep revenue stable QoQ. Meanwhile, YoY growth could weaken as there are no factors to boost exports like last year. As a result, overall revenue is expected to gradually recover from 4Q25 onward to 2Q-3Q26, which will mark the start of the high season.
In addition, gross profit margin is expected to stay within a range of 5.30 – 5.50%. Although export data, especially in the electronics sector in December 2025, increased by 11% and HDD grew by 21%, reflecting continued strong demand from data centers, the company’s monthly revenue still declined by about 9%. This is partly assessed to be due to increasing intercompany transactions since 3Q25. Thus, though a higher product mix from new high-margin goods is expected, intercompany items are keeping overall margins steady rather than expanding in the short term.
Therefore, CCET remains well-positioned to benefit from both customer production base relocations in printer products and the expansion of the data center industry, as a manufacturer and distributor of memory products like HDD and SSD—which are key data storage infrastructure. Demand trends for such products are growing in line with data center investment cycles, including products for AI servers and a transition in the Power & Energy segment, such as EV chargers and mPOS (Mobile Point of Sale Devices).
Nevertheless, Beyond Securities recommends “HOLD” with a target price of THB 5.20 per share, based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 20 times. The recent price increase partly reflects positive news. Should the company sustainably raise its gross profit margin above the projected 5.30 – 5.50%, this would be a positive catalyst to re-rating further share value, reflecting the significant business transition toward higher-margin product groups.
