PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR) reported a net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 of THB 2,078 million, marking a decline of 31% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, as highlighted by both Krungsri Securities (KSS) and KGI Securities (Thailand) (KGI) in their recent analyses.
The profit was broadly in line with market expectations, as non-recurring items, particularly impairments related to two food and beverage (F&B) businesses – KAMU and Freshket – totaling THB 343 million, weighed on results. Excluding these, normalized profit amounted to THB 2,308 million, down 11% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, slightly missing estimates due to increased employee bonus expenses.
Performance Breakdown – Impact of Regional and Market Volatility
According to Krungsri Securities, the decline in profit was mainly driven by subdued performance in the Global business segment, particularly after the Thailand–Cambodia border conflict in December 2025. Oil sales in this segment saw a sharp drop of 28% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, while coffee sales plummeted by 56% year-on-year and 32% quarter-on-quarter. The deterioration was further exacerbated by intensified competition in the Philippines and challenges in the Cambodian market.
Despite the headwinds, OR’s Mobility business posted a slight sequential improvement with oil sales volume reaching 6,194 million liters, up 4% quarter-on-quarter but still 12% lower year-on-year. This increase, attributed to seasonally higher demand and tourism-related activity, was insufficient to counterbalance higher SG&A expenses and declining international sales in other business segments.
KGI Securities noted that the company’s oil marketing margin remained solid at THB 1.02/liter, aided by a stronger jet fuel margin, while a stock loss of THB 580 million partially offset these gains. Non-oil earnings, particularly from coffee sales, remained subdued with volumes largely flat quarter-on-quarter at 109 million cups.
Dividend Payout and Outlook for 2026
OR declared a second-half 2025 dividend of THB 0.30 per share, setting the ex-dividend (XD) date on February 23, 2026. This brings the full-year dividend to THB 0.60 per share, representing a yield of approximately 4.5% at the current share price, according to KGI.
Both brokerages expect a recovery in 1Q26, citing anticipated volume rebounds in the Mobility business, normalization of SG&A expenses, and the absence of the prior quarter’s adverse impacts, such as the southern Thailand floods and government subsidy changes.
Krungsri revised its normalized profit forecasts for 2026-27 down by 11% and 10% to THB 11,470 million and THB 12,554 million, respectively, reflecting ongoing competition and continued challenges in Cambodia, with oil and coffee sales volumes expected to contract by 4-5% and 2%.
KGI reiterates an ‘Outperform’ rating on OR with a target price of THB 16.00 for 2026, based on a PE ratio of 15x, and sees the attractive dividend yield supporting the share price. On the other hand, Krungsri lowered its 2026 target price to THB 16.5 and maintained its ‘Buy’ recommendation, encouraging investors to accumulate shares on dips pending clarity on the Cambodia business—expected within the first half of 2026.
Key Risks Noted for Investors
Both firms caution that major risks facing OR include volatility in oil prices and marketing margins, potential market share loss due to aggressive competition, higher-than-anticipated operating costs, and lingering uncertainties regarding the company’s operations in Cambodia—especially with 127 retail oil service stations and 178 Café Amazon outlets currently impacted.
