Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has provided a detailed analysis of PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) following the company’s 4Q25 and full-year 2025 financial results.
PTTGC reported a net loss of THB 5.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, deepening its total annual loss to THB 14.6 billion. Excluding non-recurring items—such as a THB 2.8 billion impairment loss related to polyols/MCC, a THB 2.6 billion provision write-back for PTTAC/VCR, THB 1.15 billion in forex gains, a THB 647 million deferred tax reversal, and a THB 1.46 billion stock loss—the core loss for the final quarter was THB 3.9 billion, bringing the adjusted full-year loss for 2025 to THB 13.7 billion.
PTTGC’s inability to capitalize on strong 4Q25 gross refining margins (GRM) was primarily due to a scheduled 50-day refinery shutdown. Despite GRM increasing by $2.3 per barrel quarter-on-quarter to $7.9, refining sales volume plummeted 41% from the previous quarter, contributing to a 27% QoQ decline in refining EBITDA, which stood at THB 1.8 billion. The shutdown alone reduced refining EBITDA by approximately THB 1.7 billion.
Aromatic segment EBITDA improved from THB 59 million in 3Q25 to THB 395 million, underpinned by a wider paraxylene (PX) spread—even as benzene (BZ) spreads narrowed. However, aromatic sales volume was still down 15% due to the shutdown, suggesting a potential EBITDA increase of THB 1.16 billion had operating levels remained constant. In olefins, despite declining polyethylene prices, EBITDA grew to THB 437 million from THB 261 million in the previous quarter, benefiting from a higher ethane feedstock flow.
Allnex saw its EBITDA drop 26% QoQ to THB 1.7 billion due to weaker seasonal demand and a 5% decline in sales volume, which pressured margins lower.
PTTGC’s adjusted EBITDA came in at THB 4.2 billion, versus THB 5.15 billion in 3Q25, while fixed overheads were maintained at THB 6.5 billion. On the tax side, despite reporting operating losses, the company booked a THB 647 million expense arising from a deferred tax reversal.
Looking forward, KKPS remains optimistic about PTTGC’s 2026 outlook. The frequency and magnitude of planned plant shutdowns are expected to ease, with only the Olefin 4 unit undergoing turnaround in January and Aromatic I & II scheduled in June. Importantly, there are no planned refinery shutdowns for 2026, which should allow PTTGC to fully benefit from robust middle distillate crack spreads—averaging $21.5 per barrel as of January.
Additionally, the PX market rebound remains a bright spot, as 67% of PTTGC’s aromatic sales are PX-focused. The company expects to gain from the marked improvement in the PX-condensate spread, forecast at $372 per ton in 2026. PTTGC also noted a rationalization in ethane costs; the temporary spike in 2025, amounting to an additional THB 800 million, will be eliminated as gas price restructuring has concluded, leading to a higher supply of lower-cost ethane from 1.78 million tons in 2025 to an estimated 1.9 million tons in 2026.
Management further highlighted ongoing discussions to secure strategic partners, with the aim to unlock further value and enhance competitiveness. At a valuation of just 0.4x 2026E price-to-book—well below its historical average of 1.0x during 2012-2023—KKPS maintains its “Buy” recommendation on PTTGC, citing significant upside potential given operational improvements and supportive market dynamics.
