Thailand’s export sector kicked off 2026 with strong momentum, as stated by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) in its latest analysis. In January, the figures raced ahead by 24.4% year-on-year, reaching a total value of $31.57 billion.
This exceptional performance was mainly fueled by electronics and artificial intelligence-related products, particularly exports destined for the United States, which soared by 43.1% year-on-year.
Despite this robust export expansion, imports outpaced exports with a 29.4% year-on-year increase to $34.88 billion. Consequently, Thailand registered a trade deficit of $3.3 billion for the month. KKPS attributes this phenomenon to ongoing rerouting activities, where goods are transshipped through Thailand despite limited growth in domestic production.
Industrial exports were the primary driver of the export boom, leaping by 29.8% compared to the previous year. The sector’s growth was underpinned by remarkable surges in key electronics exports: computers and parts climbed 68.2% year-on-year, telephone equipment and parts skyrocketed by 195.4%, switchboards and electrical control panels rose 43.6%, and transformers and components gained 32.2%. Automotive exports also saw robust growth, up by 9.8%, largely due to strong shipments of pickup trucks and automotive components.
While the United States remained Thailand’s top-performing market, significant gains were also recorded in China (+35.1%), ASEAN-5 (+29.8%), and the EU (+17.8%). KKPS notes this broad-based strength signals a revitalized global trade cycle, particularly among economies heavily involved in AI-related exports. Notable standouts in this category include Taiwan (+69.9%), Singapore (+38.7%), and South Korea (+33.8%).
In contrast to the industrial sector, agricultural and agro-industrial exports declined by 1.8% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively. The report highlights strong performance in exports of fresh, chilled, and frozen fruits (+53.5%), fresh, chilled, and frozen shrimp (+39.3%), and plant/animal fats and oils (+21.6%). Yet, exports of traditional staples such as rice, rubber, and sugar registered contractions.
Imports increased substantially across the board, with notable rises in capital goods (+29.5%) and raw materials (+50.3%). While consumer goods imports continued to grow (+7.9%), the pace moderated from the previous month.
KKPS believes this surge in imports is less a reflection of rising domestic demand and more a result of rerouted trade and increased foreign direct investment, as mirrored by strong private investment figures in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Looking forward, KKPS sees January’s strong export numbers as an upside risk to its initial 2026 export forecast. However, the brokerage maintains that the benefits to Thailand’s real economy may be limited, given that much of the growth is tied to transshipment rather than genuine domestic expansion.
The analyst projects that the effective tariff rate could fall from about 9.0% to 7.0% as a result of a recent court ruling on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). With around 40% of Thai exports to the U.S. still on an exemption list, the country’s exporters could see some relief despite ongoing global trade volatility.
