Morgan Stanley has upgraded Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC), Thailand’s leading telecom operator, to “Overweight” with a revised price target of Bt450, up from Bt335. This marks a “Street-high” valuation, reflecting rising optimism about AIS’ strong cash generation (dubbed as Thailand’s Steady Cash Cow), compelling dividend prospects, and pivotal role in Thailand’s booming artificial intelligence (AI) data center market.
Morgan Stanley identifies Thailand as its most preferred ASEAN telco market for 2026, citing the sector’s duopoly structure—dominated by AIS and TRUE—which fosters rational pricing and a focus on profitability. Both operators emphasize returns, underpinning a favorable long-term outlook.
AIS is expected to deliver free cash flow (FCF) exceeding Bt80 billion annually over FY26-28, comfortably covering its ordinary dividend payouts of over Bt50 billion per year. The company’s major shareholders, GULF (40.4%) and Singtel (24.8%), are set to benefit from this dividend stream each year from their stakes in AIS.
Beyond its strong performance in traditional telecom, AIS is accelerating its participation in Thailand’s surging AI data center market. Morgan Stanley notes an upward revision of capacity forecasts: Thailand’s data center sector, initially pegged at 1GW by 2035, is now expected to reach closer to 3GW due to heightened interest following constraints in Malaysia. AIS, through its joint venture with Singtel and GULF, is constructing three new data centers totaling about 164MW and plans to deliver Thailand’s sovereign cloud in partnership with Oracle.
Morgan Stanley has upgraded its FY26-27 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for AIS by 6.4–10.8%, driven by anticipated higher revenues (with increased ARPU) and improved margins. Topline and EBITDA growth are forecast to be in the low-single digits. While Morgan Stanley sees AIS as a reliable compounder and cash generator, it also notes that TRUE could offer greater earnings improvement potential for investors seeking higher growth.
