On March 5, 2026, Nantapong Chiralerspong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) and spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, revealed that the general consumer price index (CPI) of Thailand in February 2026 stood at 99.67. Compared to February 2025, which was 100.55, this resulted in a decrease in headline inflation by 0.88% year-on-year.
The key factor was the decrease in product prices in the energy group, as fuel prices declined due to increased subsidies from the Oil Fuel Fund following the resolution of the Fuel Fund Executive Committee, and electricity charges were adjusted downward in accordance with government measures to reduce the cost of living.
In addition, the prices of pork, eggs, and fresh fruits decreased due to oversupply, while the prices of goods in the food and non-alcoholic beverage category increased, particularly non-alcoholic beverages and ready-to-eat foods. The prices of other products and services had little impact on the inflation situation.
Comparing Thailand’s headline inflation rate to other countries, the latest data from January 2026 indicated that Thailand’s headline inflation dropped by 0.66% year-on-year, ranking as the fifth lowest among 127 reporting economies, and the lowest among the 10 ASEAN countries that announced figures.
Regarding the outlook for headline inflation in March 2026, it is expected to be significantly affected by the joint US-Israel military operation against Iran, which is escalating unrest and tensions in the Middle East.
Factors driving headline inflation higher include the global crude oil price trending upward due to military operations in the Middle East, as well as efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz that have raised shipping costs. At the same time, prices of certain agricultural products are likely to rise due to weather conditions predicted to be hotter than last year. Car prices have increased in line with the 2026 automobile excise tax, along with the recovery of the tourism sector, which may lead to a trend of rising airfares.
Factors supporting a decline in headline inflation include the government’s continued implementation of measures to reduce the cost of living, especially the reduction of the electricity Ft rate for the January-April 2026 period to THB 0.0972 per unit, resulting in electricity rates dropping to THB 3.88 per unit. The appreciation of the baht has also lowered import costs, while pork and egg prices are below last year’s levels due to oversupply and slow demand recovery.
