Mr. Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of the Research Division, Investment Strategy, at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on March 12, 2026, that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index will be pressured by the negative sentiment following the sharp increase of the oil price. However, he estimated that the index will not fluctuate violently and projected the resistance level at 1,380 points.
Mr. Suwat also noted that if oil prices do not remain above USD 95 per barrel for more than a month, the index is unlikely to fluctuate significantly. He explained that at the USD 70–95 range, the energy sector tends to benefit, but once prices rise above USD 95, the sector may face difficulties in securing supply. At that level, the impact on the real sector would also become more pronounced.
Regarding Iran’s warning that it will block oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S., which could push prices to as high as USD 200 per barrel, Mr. Suwat stated that oil prices could reach that level but likely only for a short period. He noted that the global market is currently facing an oil oversupply, which could help offset any supply disruption. In addition, producer countries could use alternative transportation routes to continue delivering oil.
As for investment strategy, Mr. Suwat recommended energy stocks that stand to benefit from higher oil prices, such as PTT PCL (SET: PTT) and Bangchak Corporation PCL (SET: BCP), while adding that PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC) is the winner in petrochemical stocks due to its advantage in gas costs compared to peers. He also highlighted defensive sectors, particularly telecommunications and hospitals, noting that many stocks in these groups are currently oversold.
For medium-term investment, Mr. Suwat recommended Global Power Synergy PCL (SET: GPSC), B.Grimm Power PCL (SET: BGRIM), and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL (SET: BDMS), citing their positions in the megatrend themes despite being weighed down significantly by the conflict. KSS also highlighted Krung Thai Bank PCL (SET: KTB), supported by the rise in U.S. bond yields, as well as Electricity Generating PCL (SET: EGCO) for its exposure to megatrend themes.
Regarding fund flows, Mr. Suwat noted that foreign investors are shifting capital out of the market to reduce risk, as Thailand imports a large amount of oil and gas, higher than most countries in Asia. However, if Thailand can maintain political stability and focus on stimulating investment, the flows could return once the market absorbs most of the negative sentiment stemming from the Middle East conflict.
